Notre Dame
#4 · 6-1#4 · 6-1 · 0-0 Independents · ATS 4-3
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough · Neutral
WIN PROB
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Navy
2-42-4 · 1-3 American · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- ND −28.5
- Open −28.5
- Total
- 53.5
- Open 53.5
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- ND −28.5
- open −28.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 53.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Notre Dame passvs Navy pass Dvs NAVY pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 8th+0.21 | 135th+0.21 | 33 | ND +20.1 |
  Navy passvs Notre Dame pass Dvs ND pass D | 78th−0.03 | 13th−0.14 | 14 | ND +3.5 |
| Notre Dame runvs Navy run Dvs NAVY run D | 11th+0.11 | 4th−0.14 | 35 | NAVY +1.4 |
| Navy runvs Notre Dame run Dvs ND run D | 4th+0.12 | 11th−0.10 | 54 | NAVY +1.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ND +20.1
Notre Dame's passing game vs the Navy pass defense
Notre Dame gains +0.32 EPA a play on the pass (8th); Navy allows +0.32 (135th). About 33 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseNavy
NAVY OFFWhen Navy has the ball
DefenseNotre Dame
ND DEF- +0.0951stEPA / play8th−0.11
- 44.4%40thSuccess rate4th35.4%
- 1.2881stExplosiveness65th1.29
- +0.194thRush EPA / play11th−0.03
- +0.0978thPass EPA / dropback13th−0.03
- 52.0%15thStandard downs SR5th41.1%
- 27.5%123rdPassing downs SR24th29.0%
- 3.755thLine yards33rd2.81
- 12.7%51stHavoc rate14th18.1%
- 4.5658thPoints / opportunity137th5.64
- +0.1065thEarly-down EPA / play3rd−0.20
- 42.4%56th3rd-down conversion74th39.1%
- 9.5%4thStuff rate33rd19.4%
- 9.2%131stSack rate77th5.2%
- 71%35thRed zone TD rate116th73%
Notre Dame's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (123rd vs 24th).
OffenseNotre Dame
ND OFFWhen Notre Dame has the ball
DefenseNavy
NAVY DEF- +0.283rdEPA / play94th+0.12
- 50.2%4thSuccess rate35th39.6%
- 1.2885thExplosiveness137th1.43
- +0.1811thRush EPA / play4th−0.07
- +0.328thPass EPA / dropback135th+0.32
- 55.2%1stStandard downs SR34th45.3%
- 31.1%64thPassing downs SR54th30.2%
- 3.4236thLine yards18th2.72
- 10.8%24thHavoc rate108th12.5%
- 5.2714thPoints / opportunity83rd4.19
- +0.2712thEarly-down EPA / play87th+0.07
- 41.3%65th3rd-down conversion119th45.7%
- 10.6%13thStuff rate57th17.4%
- 0.6%1stSack rate20th7.6%
- 67%55thRed zone TD rate77th63%
Notre Dame's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: pass EPA (8th vs 135th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | NDND | NAVYNAVY | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 23.6 | 31.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 67.4 | 64.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 61.5% | 17.5% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +4.6% | −31.3% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 58.2% | 16.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 41% | 37% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 34:30 | 28:10 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 32.2 | Own 26.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%