Skip to content
Slate
SAT 3:00 · MW+ · COLORADO SPRINGS
UConn
4-34-3 · 0-0 Independents · ATS 5-2
3:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · MW+
Falcon Stadium · Colorado Springs
WIN PROB
—
 
Air Force
5-25-2 · 3-2 Mountain West · ATS 4-3
Spread
—
 
Total
—
 
Model line
—
 
Win probability
—
Projected score
—
 
Projected plays
—
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
—
 
Model
—
 
Total
—
 

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
UConn runvs Air Force run Dvs AFA run DBIGGEST EDGE
18th+0.10100th+0.0537CONN +7.8
Air Force runvs UConn run Dvs CONN run D
2nd+0.1441st−0.0558AFA +7.6
UConn passvs Air Force pass Dvs AFA pass D
43rd+0.0593rd+0.0432CONN +4.2
Air Force passvs UConn pass Dvs CONN pass D
89th−0.05107th+0.0810AFA +0.4

BIGGEST EDGE · CONN +7.8

UConn's run game vs the Air Force run defense

UConn gains +0.17 EPA a play on the run (18th); Air Force allows +0.12 (100th). About 37 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseAir Force
AFA OFF

When Air Force has the ball

DefenseUConn
CONN DEF
  • +0.1433rdEPA / play89th+0.10
  • 46.6%23rdSuccess rate94th44.1%
  • 1.18137thExplosiveness29th1.25
  • +0.212ndRush EPA / play41st+0.02
  • +0.0789thPass EPA / dropback107th+0.19
  • 52.6%12thStandard downs SR108th50.0%
  • 29.2%105thPassing downs SR45th29.7%
  • 3.774thLine yards57th3.00
  • 7.4%3rdHavoc rate65th14.6%
  • 5.654thPoints / opportunity50th3.72
  • 66%61stRed zone TD rate94th67%

Air Force's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (137th vs 29th).

OffenseUConn
CONN OFF

When UConn has the ball

DefenseAir Force
AFA DEF
  • +0.1341stEPA / play108th+0.14
  • 41.5%75thSuccess rate80th43.0%
  • 1.3910thExplosiveness121st1.37
  • +0.1718thRush EPA / play100th+0.12
  • +0.1643rdPass EPA / dropback93rd+0.16
  • 47.2%63rdStandard downs SR76th48.0%
  • 31.6%53rdPassing downs SR71st30.9%
  • 3.5819thLine yards90th3.21
  • 12.5%48thHavoc rate86th13.5%
  • 4.5657thPoints / opportunity98th4.36
  • 75%14thRed zone TD rate41st52%

UConn's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (10th vs 121st).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, UConn and Air Force, season to date
MetricCONNCONNAFAAFAFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral27.232.528.9
Plays per gamePlays per game65.472.165.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral51.1%12.6%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−0.5%−35.4%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral45.2%9.6%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations31%42%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession29:2936:0830:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.8Own 29.4Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

UConn

NO OFFICIAL REPORT% TO PLAYIMPACT
Conference publishes no reportNO OFFICIAL REPORT

Air Force

NO OFFICIAL REPORT% TO PLAYIMPACT
Conference publishes no reportNO OFFICIAL REPORT
Week 8 game-day report2 OUT FOR SEASON · 5 OUT · 2 QUESTIONABLE

Broadcast

MW+
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Temp
—
mph
—
Precip
—
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestCONN 8d · AFA 8d