Mountain West · 5-2 · 3-2 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4
Air Force Falcons
HC Troy Calhoun (13th yr) · OC Mike Thiessen · DC Steve Russ
STARTS IN 21 PERSONNEL (6 OF 7) · BASE D 3-3-5 · SHOTGUN 44%
Mountain West · 5-2 · 3-2 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 3-4
Air Force
Falcons · HC Troy Calhoun (13th yr) · starts in 21 (6 of 7) · base D 3-3-5
Air Force
5-2 · 3-2 Mountain West
2 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 15% · title 6%
Latest from the beat
AIR FORCE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   DuquesneDuquesne | W34–0 | −30−30 | W | +0.67 | 53% | 26% | 100% | 78 | 32.4 | |
| 2 |   North Dakota StateNorth Dakota State | L32–38 | +2+2 | L | +0.08 | 50% | 38% | 54% | 66 | 28.7 | |
| 3 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 4 |   at Nevadaat Nevada | W36–33 | −5.5−5.5 | L | +0.04 | 44% | 41% | 57% | 82 | 30.8 | |
| 5 |   NavyNavy | W14–9 | −3−3 | W | +0.11 | 35% | 29% | 59% | 71 | 30.3 | |
| 6 |   at Northern Illinoisat Northern Illinois | W28–7 | −7−7 | W | +0.51 | 66% | 47% | 97% | 67 | 37.3 | |
| 7 |   UNLVUNLV | W41–31 | −1.5−1.5 | W | +0.22 | 53% | 46% | 75% | 64 | 35.0 | |
| 8 |   at Wyomingat Wyoming | L14–28 | −7−7 | L | — | — | — | 22% | — | — | |
| 9 |   UConnUConnNEXT | SAT 3:00 MW+SAT 3:00 | −3.9 proj−3.9 | — | — | — | — | 59% | — | — | |
| 10 |   at Armyat Army | NOV 7NOV 7 | +2.2 proj+2.2 | 45% | |||||||
| 11 |   San José StateSan José State | NOV 14NOV 14 | −13.4 proj−13.4 | 79% | |||||||
| 12 |   UTEPUTEP | NOV 20NOV 20 | −23 proj−23 | 92% | |||||||
| 13 |   at New Mexicoat New Mexico | NOV 28NOV 28 | +8.9 proj+8.9 | 29% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 472 OF 474 PLAYS472 OF 474 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun44% | 44% | 21% | +0.01 | 40% |
| Under center56% | 56% | 10% | +0.37 | 57% |
| No-huddle7% | 7% | 35% | +0.43 | 45% |
| Huddle93% | 93% | 13% | +0.19 | 50% |
In shotgun on 44 % of tagged snaps, passing 21 % of the time (+0.01 EPA a play; +0.37 under center). No-huddle on 7 %. Starts in 21 personnel in 6 of 7 games. Base defense 3-3-5 (5 of 5).
Next game
SAT 3:00 MW+ · FALCON STADIUMSAT 3:00 MW+
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain West crews−0.3 to +0.5 · 38 games | +0.1 | −0.3 to +0.5 | 38 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 6 games | −0.1 | — | 6 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 5 games | −1.2 | — | 5 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 2 games | +0.7 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −0.8 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Pac-12 crews— · 1 game | +0.4 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Air Force than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Air Force than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Air ForceAFA | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.16 | 26th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.4% | 25th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.20 | 128th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.20 | 3rd | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.07 | 85th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 29.0% | 110th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.74 | 6th | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 5.8% | 93rd | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 51% | 16th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 5.91 | 1st | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 68% | 51st | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 32.6 | 135th | 28.0 |