UConn
4-34-3 · 0-0 Independents · ATS 5-2
3:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 31 · MW+
Falcon Stadium · Colorado Springs
WIN PROB
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Air Force
5-25-2 · 3-2 Mountain West · ATS 4-3
- Spread
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- Total
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- Model line
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- Win probability
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- Projected score
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- Projected plays
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- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
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- Model
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- Total
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Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  UConn runvs Air Force run Dvs AFA run DBIGGEST EDGE | 18th+0.10 | 100th+0.05 | 37 | CONN +7.8 |
  Air Force runvs UConn run Dvs CONN run D | 2nd+0.14 | 41st−0.05 | 58 | AFA +7.6 |
| UConn passvs Air Force pass Dvs AFA pass D | 43rd+0.05 | 93rd+0.04 | 32 | CONN +4.2 |
| Air Force passvs UConn pass Dvs CONN pass D | 89th−0.05 | 107th+0.08 | 10 | AFA +0.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · CONN +7.8
UConn's run game vs the Air Force run defense
UConn gains +0.17 EPA a play on the run (18th); Air Force allows +0.12 (100th). About 37 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseAir Force
AFA OFFWhen Air Force has the ball
DefenseUConn
CONN DEF- +0.1433rdEPA / play89th+0.10
- 46.6%23rdSuccess rate94th44.1%
- 1.18137thExplosiveness29th1.25
- +0.212ndRush EPA / play41st+0.02
- +0.0789thPass EPA / dropback107th+0.19
- 52.6%12thStandard downs SR108th50.0%
- 29.2%105thPassing downs SR45th29.7%
- 3.774thLine yards57th3.00
- 7.4%3rdHavoc rate65th14.6%
- 5.654thPoints / opportunity50th3.72
- +0.1736thEarly-down EPA / play66th+0.03
- 52.1%12th3rd-down conversion43rd35.4%
- 8.5%3rdStuff rate59th17.3%
- 7.2%108thSack rate92nd4.7%
- 66%61stRed zone TD rate94th67%
Air Force's offense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (137th vs 29th).
OffenseUConn
CONN OFFWhen UConn has the ball
DefenseAir Force
AFA DEF- +0.1341stEPA / play108th+0.14
- 41.5%75thSuccess rate80th43.0%
- 1.3910thExplosiveness121st1.37
- +0.1718thRush EPA / play100th+0.12
- +0.1643rdPass EPA / dropback93rd+0.16
- 47.2%63rdStandard downs SR76th48.0%
- 31.6%53rdPassing downs SR71st30.9%
- 3.5819thLine yards90th3.21
- 12.5%48thHavoc rate86th13.5%
- 4.5657thPoints / opportunity98th4.36
- +0.1735thEarly-down EPA / play83rd+0.07
- 41.9%62nd3rd-down conversion50th36.0%
- 16.1%77thStuff rate93rd15.0%
- 9.0%128thSack rate72nd5.4%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate41st52%
UConn's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (10th vs 121st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | CONNCONN | AFAAFA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.2 | 32.5 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 65.4 | 72.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 51.1% | 12.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −0.5% | −35.4% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 45.2% | 9.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 31% | 42% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:29 | 36:08 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.8 | Own 29.4 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%