Washington State vs San Diego State

Washington State

1-61-6 · 0-3 Pac-12 · ATS 5-2

7:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 31 · CBSSN

Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego

WIN PROB

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San Diego State

3-43-4 · 2-1 Pac-12 · ATS 2-5

Spread: —
Total: —
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: —
Model: —
Total: —

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
San Diego State passvs Washington State pass Dvs WSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	134th−0.20	55th−0.03	30	WSU +9.9
Washington State passvs San Diego State pass Dvs SDSU pass D	125th−0.15	86th+0.03	38	SDSU +6.5
San Diego State runvs Washington State run Dvs WSU run D	130th−0.12	80th+0.02	38	WSU +5.7
Washington State runvs San Diego State run Dvs SDSU run D	106th−0.05	63rd−0.01	30	SDSU +2.6

BIGGEST EDGE · WSU +9.9

The Washington State pass defense vs San Diego State's passing game

San Diego State gains −0.09 EPA a play on the pass (134th); Washington State allows +0.09 (55th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseSan Diego State

SDSU OFF

When San Diego State has the ball

DefenseWashington State

WSU DEF

−0.14136thEPA / play73rd+0.07
35.6%133rdSuccess rate60th41.6%
1.2793rdExplosiveness103rd1.33
−0.05130thRush EPA / play80th+0.09
−0.09134thPass EPA / dropback55th+0.09
41.8%133rdStandard downs SR82nd48.2%
27.3%126thPassing downs SR21st28.8%
2.95112thLine yards78th3.15
15.4%105thHavoc rate117th11.9%
3.62113thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
61%81stRed zone TD rate55th57%

Washington State's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (126th vs 21st).

OffenseWashington State

WSU OFF

When Washington State has the ball

DefenseSan Diego State

SDSU DEF

−0.07120thEPA / play72nd+0.07
36.0%131stSuccess rate119th46.4%
1.25107thExplosiveness1st1.15
+0.02106thRush EPA / play63rd+0.06
−0.03125thPass EPA / dropback86th+0.14
43.4%125thStandard downs SR127th51.7%
25.0%138thPassing downs SR103rd32.4%
2.98103rdLine yards132nd3.64
17.5%129thHavoc rate126th11.5%
4.0482ndPoints / opportunity95th4.34
60%84thRed zone TD rate85th63%

San Diego State's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (107th vs 1st).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Washington State and San Diego State, season to date
Metric	WSUWSU	SDSUSDSU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	28.4	27.0	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	63.9	60.0	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	54.6%	39.6%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+0.4%	−11.1%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	50.5%	36.0%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	19%	22%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	27:25	25:36	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 24.9	Own 28.9	Own 29.8