- Spread
- —
- Total
- —
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- —
- Model
- —
- Total
- —
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  San Diego State passvs Washington State pass Dvs WSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 134th−0.20 | 55th−0.03 | 30 | WSU +9.9 |
  Washington State passvs San Diego State pass Dvs SDSU pass D | 125th−0.15 | 86th+0.03 | 38 | SDSU +6.5 |
| San Diego State runvs Washington State run Dvs WSU run D | 130th−0.12 | 80th+0.02 | 38 | WSU +5.7 |
| Washington State runvs San Diego State run Dvs SDSU run D | 106th−0.05 | 63rd−0.01 | 30 | SDSU +2.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · WSU +9.9
The Washington State pass defense vs San Diego State's passing game
San Diego State gains −0.09 EPA a play on the pass (134th); Washington State allows +0.09 (55th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When San Diego State has the ball
- −0.14136thEPA / play73rd+0.07
- 35.6%133rdSuccess rate60th41.6%
- 1.2793rdExplosiveness103rd1.33
- −0.05130thRush EPA / play80th+0.09
- −0.09134thPass EPA / dropback55th+0.09
- 41.8%133rdStandard downs SR82nd48.2%
- 27.3%126thPassing downs SR21st28.8%
- 2.95112thLine yards78th3.15
- 15.4%105thHavoc rate117th11.9%
- 3.62113thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
- −0.18136thEarly-down EPA / play103rd+0.09
- 32.5%123rd3rd-down conversion64th38.3%
- 21.7%129thStuff rate61st17.1%
- 4.6%55thSack rate117th3.6%
- 61%81stRed zone TD rate55th57%
Washington State's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (126th vs 21st).
When Washington State has the ball
- −0.07120thEPA / play72nd+0.07
- 36.0%131stSuccess rate119th46.4%
- 1.25107thExplosiveness1st1.15
- +0.02106thRush EPA / play63rd+0.06
- −0.03125thPass EPA / dropback86th+0.14
- 43.4%125thStandard downs SR127th51.7%
- 25.0%138thPassing downs SR103rd32.4%
- 2.98103rdLine yards132nd3.64
- 17.5%129thHavoc rate126th11.5%
- 4.0482ndPoints / opportunity95th4.34
- −0.06119thEarly-down EPA / play121st+0.15
- 29.7%132nd3rd-down conversion106th42.1%
- 21.0%124thStuff rate136th8.6%
- 8.1%121stSack rate38th6.9%
- 60%84thRed zone TD rate85th63%
San Diego State's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (107th vs 1st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | WSUWSU | SDSUSDSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.4 | 27.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 63.9 | 60.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.6% | 39.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +0.4% | −11.1% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 50.5% | 36.0% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 19% | 22% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 27:25 | 25:36 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 24.9 | Own 28.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%