6-3 · 4-2 Big Ten · ATS 4-4-1

Illinois

6-3

9:00 PM ET

Fri, Nov 13 · FOX

Rose Bowl · Pasadena

#4 · 9-0 · 6-0 Big Ten · ATS 9-0

UCLA

#4 · 9-0

Spread: UCLA −10; Open −9.5 · −110
Total: 47.5; Open 46.5 · o −115
Model line: UCLA −14.1; Model total 55.9+4.1
Win probability: 80%
Projected score: 20.9–35.0; ILL – UCLA
Projected plays: 127; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: UCLA −10; open −9.5
Model: −14.1; UCLA+4.1
Total: 47.5; model 55.9
Win probability: 80%; UCLA

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
UCLA pass vs Illinois pass Dvs ILL pass DBiggest edge	47th+0.06	126th+0.13	27	UCLA +7.5
UCLA run vs Illinois run Dvs ILL run D	22nd+0.08	90th+0.04	37	UCLA +6.6
Illinois pass vs UCLA pass Dvs UCLA pass D	34th+0.10	7th−0.19	34	UCLA +4.7
Illinois run vs UCLA run Dvs UCLA run D	55th+0.02	16th−0.09	30	UCLA +3.1
Pace ILL 31.4 s · UCLA 33.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	127	U 2.0

BIGGEST EDGE · UCLA +7.5

UCLA's passing game vs the Illinois pass defense

UCLA gains +0.16 EPA a play on the pass (47th); Illinois allows +0.23 (126th). About 27 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseUCLA

UCLA OFF

When UCLA has the ball

DefenseIllinois

ILL DEF

+0.1339thEPA / play117th+0.15
45.9%28thSuccess rate116th46.0%
1.2981stExplosiveness30th1.24
+0.1622ndRush EPA / play90th+0.11
+0.1647thPass EPA / dropback126th+0.23
50.6%30thStandard downs SR111th50.4%
31.6%52ndPassing downs SR120th33.4%
3.5616thLine yards81st3.22
13.7%67thHavoc rate116th11.9%
3.8597thPoints / opportunity95th4.31
63%70thRed zone TD rate87th66%

UCLA's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: success rate (28th vs 116th).

OffenseIllinois

ILL OFF

When Illinois has the ball

DefenseUCLA

UCLA DEF

+0.1625thEPA / play3rd−0.15
46.4%25thSuccess rate10th36.1%
1.2975thExplosiveness59th1.28
+0.1055thRush EPA / play16th−0.02
+0.2034thPass EPA / dropback7th−0.09
50.0%31stStandard downs SR23rd43.6%
34.3%20thPassing downs SR1st24.1%
3.2463rdLine yards8th2.65
11.0%17thHavoc rate7th19.2%
4.3964thPoints / opportunity40th3.70
62%80thRed zone TD rate44th57%

UCLA's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (63rd vs 8th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	ILLILL	UCLAUCLA	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	31.4	33.0	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	61.8	65.1	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	52.7%	47.3%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+1.0%	−2.6%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	47.7%	40.7%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	26%	18%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	28:51	32:41	30:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 27.5	Own 34.7	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%