#15 · 7-2 · 4-2 Big Ten · ATS 3-6

USC

#15 · 7-2

3:30 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · CBS

Memorial Stadium · Bloomington

#6 · 8-1 · 5-1 Big Ten · ATS 1-8

Indiana

#6 · 8-1

Spread: IU −9; Open −7.5 · −110
Total: 51.5; Open 49.5 · o −110
Model line: IU −8; Model total 57.1+1.0
Win probability: 69%
Projected score: 24.6–32.6; USC – IU
Projected plays: 127; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: IU −9; open −7.5
Model: −8; IU+1.0
Total: 51.5; model 57.1
Win probability: 69%; IU

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Indiana pass vs USC pass Dvs USC pass DBiggest edge	19th+0.13	93rd+0.04	31	IU +7.8
USC pass vs Indiana pass Dvs IU pass D	3rd+0.26	13th−0.15	34	USC +5.7
USC run vs Indiana run Dvs IU run D	76th−0.01	11th−0.11	29	IU +5.3
Pace USC 27.8 s · IU 27.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	127	U 1.9
Indiana run vs USC run Dvs USC run D	85th−0.02	68th0.00	33	USC +1.0

BIGGEST EDGE · IU +7.8

Indiana's passing game vs the USC pass defense

Indiana gains +0.23 EPA a play on the pass (19th); USC allows +0.14 (93rd). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseIndiana

IU OFF

When Indiana has the ball

DefenseUSC

USC DEF

+0.1335thEPA / play70th+0.06
42.3%61stSuccess rate63rd41.7%
1.3813thExplosiveness97th1.33
+0.0585thRush EPA / play68th+0.08
+0.2319thPass EPA / dropback93rd+0.14
47.7%55thStandard downs SR44th45.5%
29.8%84thPassing downs SR111th32.9%
3.2753rdLine yards38th2.90
12.0%32ndHavoc rate121st11.7%
4.1677thPoints / opportunity85th4.22
60%87thRed zone TD rate74th62%

Indiana's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (32nd vs 121st).

OffenseUSC

USC OFF

When USC has the ball

DefenseIndiana

IU DEF

+0.2212thEPA / play10th−0.12
49.3%6thSuccess rate4th34.8%
1.3069thExplosiveness82nd1.31
+0.0676thRush EPA / play11th−0.04
+0.363rdPass EPA / dropback13th−0.05
52.0%19thStandard downs SR1st38.8%
37.7%2ndPassing downs SR62nd30.3%
3.2175thLine yards10th2.67
11.6%23rdHavoc rate40th15.7%
4.5348thPoints / opportunity5th2.82
63%69thRed zone TD rate2nd32%

Indiana's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (69th vs 2nd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	USCUSC	IUIU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	27.8	27.9	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	66.8	60.3	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	55.7%	52.3%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+8.6%	+1.5%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	54.0%	43.6%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	39%	20%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:51	29:26	30:06
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 29.1	Own 32.2	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%