Texas
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Nov 14 · ABC
Tiger Stadium · Baton Rouge
LSU
- Spread
- LSU −4
- Open −4 · −110
- Total
- 46.5
- Open 46.5 · o −110
- Model line
- LSU −5.5
- Model total 43.7+1.5
- Win probability
- 63%
- Projected score
- 19.1–24.6
- TEX – LSU
- Projected plays
- 145
- FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
- Spread
- LSU −4
- open −4
- Model
- −5.5
- LSU+1.5
- Total
- 46.5
- model 43.7
- Win probability
- 63%
- LSU
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Texas pass | 61st+0.01 | 5th−0.20 | 36 | LSU +9.8 |
| Texas run | 83rd−0.02 | 5th−0.15 | 37 | LSU +8.9 |
  LSU run | 51st+0.03 | 7th−0.13 | 35 | TEX +5.4 |
Pace TEX 28.9 s · LSU 25.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays145 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 145 | O 4.1 |
| LSU pass | 23rd+0.13 | 6th−0.19 | 38 | TEX +3.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · LSU +9.8
The LSU pass defense vs Texas's passing game
Texas gains +0.11 EPA a play on the pass (61st); LSU allows −0.09 (5th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseLSU
LSU OFFWhen LSU has the ball
DefenseTexas
TEX DEF- +0.1819thEPA / play1st−0.16
- 49.4%5thSuccess rate1st33.1%
- 1.23115thExplosiveness27th1.24
- +0.1051stRush EPA / play7th−0.06
- +0.2323rdPass EPA / dropback6th−0.09
- 53.6%6thStandard downs SR2nd40.1%
- 34.8%14thPassing downs SR2nd24.7%
- 3.2656thLine yards28th2.83
- 13.3%60thHavoc rate26th16.8%
- 4.5843rdPoints / opportunity8th3.00
- 67%48thRed zone TD rate9th41%
Texas's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (115th vs 27th).
OffenseTexas
TEX OFFWhen Texas has the ball
DefenseLSU
LSU DEF- +0.0858thEPA / play2nd−0.16
- 43.8%44thSuccess rate2nd34.4%
- 1.3161stExplosiveness55th1.28
- +0.0583rdRush EPA / play5th−0.08
- +0.1161stPass EPA / dropback5th−0.09
- 47.9%49thStandard downs SR8th40.9%
- 32.2%39thPassing downs SR5th26.8%
- 2.95113thLine yards2nd2.12
- 16.9%125thHavoc rate3rd20.1%
- 5.1012thPoints / opportunity26th3.48
- 63%77thRed zone TD rate29th52%
LSU's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (125th vs 3rd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TEXTEX | LSULSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 28.9 | 25.8 | 28.7 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 65.7 | 79.4 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 54.3% | 56.3% | 48.2% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +6.0% | +7.3% | −1.8% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 54.7% | 54.6% | 44.7% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 19% | 33% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:18 | 32:24 | 30:07 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.6 | Own 30.4 | Own 29.7 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%All tempo