Wisconsin
Sat, Nov 14 · FS1
SECU Stadium · College Park
Maryland
- Spread
- WIS −9
- Open −7.5 · −110
- Total
- 42.5
- Open 43.5 · o −110
- Model line
- WIS −5.5
- Model total 46.9+3.5
- Win probability
- 63%
- Projected score
- 26.2–20.7
- WIS – MD
- Projected plays
- 121
- FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
- Spread
- WIS −9
- open −7.5
- Model
- −5.5
- WIS+3.5
- Total
- 42.5
- model 46.9
- Win probability
- 63%
- WIS
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Maryland pass | 106th−0.10 | 15th−0.15 | 36 | WIS +12.5 |
Pace WIS 31.9 s · MD 29.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays121 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 121 | U 3.9 |
| Maryland run | 70th−0.01 | 17th−0.09 | 25 | WIS +3.6 |
  Wisconsin run | 75th−0.01 | 102nd+0.05 | 33 | WIS +1.9 |
| Wisconsin pass | 82nd−0.03 | 66th0.00 | 27 | MD +1.4 |
BIGGEST EDGE · WIS +12.5
The Wisconsin pass defense vs Maryland's passing game
Maryland gains +0.00 EPA a play on the pass (106th); Wisconsin allows −0.04 (15th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Maryland has the ball
- 0.0093rdEPA / play19th−0.07
- 39.6%101stSuccess rate33rd39.3%
- 1.3816thExplosiveness2nd1.15
- +0.0770thRush EPA / play17th−0.02
- 0.00106thPass EPA / dropback15th−0.04
- 44.8%105thStandard downs SR56th46.8%
- 29.5%91stPassing downs SR6th26.8%
- 2.71131stLine yards43rd2.93
- 12.9%54thHavoc rate54th14.8%
- 4.2174thPoints / opportunity36th3.61
- 68%46thRed zone TD rate21st50%
Wisconsin's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (106th vs 15th).
When Wisconsin has the ball
- +0.0471stEPA / play63rd+0.05
- 39.1%106thSuccess rate58th41.5%
- 1.3910thExplosiveness113th1.36
- +0.0675thRush EPA / play102nd+0.13
- +0.0782ndPass EPA / dropback66th+0.10
- 45.1%101stStandard downs SR33rd44.5%
- 28.6%112thPassing downs SR127th35.2%
- 3.0893rdLine yards57th3.05
- 13.8%71stHavoc rate63rd14.6%
- 4.2371stPoints / opportunity133rd5.11
- 54%112thRed zone TD rate126th74%
Maryland's defense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (10th vs 113th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | WISWIS | MDMD | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.9 | 29.3 | 28.7 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 57.1 | 64.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 34.5% | 53.1% | 48.2% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −14.9% | +4.1% | −1.8% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 29.9% | 49.7% | 44.7% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 25% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 27:46 | 27:04 | 30:07 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 32.0 | Own 31.7 | Own 29.7 |
Injury report
BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · THU 8:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)