6-3 · 4-2 Big Ten · ATS 5-4

Wisconsin

6-3

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · FS1

SECU Stadium · College Park

3-6 · 1-5 Big Ten · ATS 4-4-1

Maryland

3-6

Spread: WIS −9; Open −7.5 · −110
Total: 42.5; Open 43.5 · o −110
Model line: WIS −5.5; Model total 46.9+3.5
Win probability: 63%
Projected score: 26.2–20.7; WIS – MD
Projected plays: 121; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: WIS −9; open −7.5
Model: −5.5; WIS+3.5
Total: 42.5; model 46.9
Win probability: 63%; WIS

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Maryland pass vs Wisconsin pass Dvs WIS pass DBiggest edge	106th−0.10	15th−0.15	36	WIS +12.5
Pace WIS 31.9 s · MD 29.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays121 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	121	U 3.9
Maryland run vs Wisconsin run Dvs WIS run D	70th−0.01	17th−0.09	25	WIS +3.6
Wisconsin run vs Maryland run Dvs MD run D	75th−0.01	102nd+0.05	33	WIS +1.9
Wisconsin pass vs Maryland pass Dvs MD pass D	82nd−0.03	66th0.00	27	MD +1.4

BIGGEST EDGE · WIS +12.5

The Wisconsin pass defense vs Maryland's passing game

Maryland gains +0.00 EPA a play on the pass (106th); Wisconsin allows −0.04 (15th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseMaryland

MD OFF

When Maryland has the ball

DefenseWisconsin

WIS DEF

0.0093rdEPA / play19th−0.07
39.6%101stSuccess rate33rd39.3%
1.3816thExplosiveness2nd1.15
+0.0770thRush EPA / play17th−0.02
0.00106thPass EPA / dropback15th−0.04
44.8%105thStandard downs SR56th46.8%
29.5%91stPassing downs SR6th26.8%
2.71131stLine yards43rd2.93
12.9%54thHavoc rate54th14.8%
4.2174thPoints / opportunity36th3.61
68%46thRed zone TD rate21st50%

Wisconsin's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (106th vs 15th).

OffenseWisconsin

WIS OFF

When Wisconsin has the ball

DefenseMaryland

MD DEF

+0.0471stEPA / play63rd+0.05
39.1%106thSuccess rate58th41.5%
1.3910thExplosiveness113th1.36
+0.0675thRush EPA / play102nd+0.13
+0.0782ndPass EPA / dropback66th+0.10
45.1%101stStandard downs SR33rd44.5%
28.6%112thPassing downs SR127th35.2%
3.0893rdLine yards57th3.05
13.8%71stHavoc rate63rd14.6%
4.2371stPoints / opportunity133rd5.11
54%112thRed zone TD rate126th74%

Maryland's defense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (10th vs 113th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	WISWIS	MDMD	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	31.9	29.3	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	57.1	64.1	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	34.5%	53.1%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−14.9%	+4.1%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	29.9%	49.7%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	22%	25%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	27:46	27:04	30:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 32.0	Own 31.7	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%