Duke
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Nov 14 · ABC
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens
Miami
- Spread
- MIA −13.5
- Open −14.5 · −110
- Total
- 54.5
- Open 54.5 · o −110
- Model line
- MIA −17.7
- Model total 59.5+4.2
- Win probability
- 86%
- Projected score
- 20.9–38.6
- DUKE – MIA
- Projected plays
- 135
- FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
- Spread
- MIA −13.5
- open −14.5
- Model
- −17.7
- MIA+4.2
- Total
- 54.5
- model 59.5
- Win probability
- 86%
- MIA
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Miami pass | 1st+0.32 | 55th−0.03 | 36 | MIA +14.8 |
  Duke run | 59th+0.02 | 3rd−0.16 | 34 | MIA +7.3 |
| Duke pass | 44th+0.07 | 96th+0.06 | 33 | DUKE +5.8 |
Pace DUKE 29.9 s · MIA 31.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays135 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 135 | O 1.4 |
| Miami run | 18th+0.09 | 35th−0.07 | 32 | MIA +1.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MIA +14.8
Miami's passing game vs the Duke pass defense
Miami gains +0.42 EPA a play on the pass (1st); Duke allows +0.07 (55th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseMiami
MIA OFFWhen Miami has the ball
DefenseDuke
DUKE DEF- +0.341stEPA / play34th−0.02
- 51.1%2ndSuccess rate48th40.7%
- 1.3342ndExplosiveness23rd1.23
- +0.1618thRush EPA / play35th+0.01
- +0.421stPass EPA / dropback55th+0.07
- 54.1%3rdStandard downs SR74th47.8%
- 36.4%7thPassing downs SR8th26.8%
- 3.666thLine yards21st2.79
- 8.7%5thHavoc rate71st14.2%
- 5.751stPoints / opportunity27th3.48
- 85%1stRed zone TD rate30th53%
Miami's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (3rd vs 74th).
OffenseDuke
DUKE OFFWhen Duke has the ball
DefenseMiami
MIA DEF- +0.1044thEPA / play38th−0.01
- 40.4%88thSuccess rate39th39.6%
- 1.3814thExplosiveness81st1.32
- +0.0959thRush EPA / play3rd−0.09
- +0.1744thPass EPA / dropback96th+0.15
- 44.7%107thStandard downs SR34th44.5%
- 32.2%41stPassing downs SR74th30.8%
- 3.2175thLine yards11th2.68
- 10.9%16thHavoc rate123rd11.6%
- 4.7930thPoints / opportunity124th4.79
- 64%63rdRed zone TD rate95th67%
Duke's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (16th vs 123rd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | DUKEDUKE | MIAMIA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.9 | 31.9 | 28.7 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 65.9 | 68.7 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 53.4% | 47.8% | 48.2% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +0.2% | +1.9% | −1.8% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 51.2% | 48.7% | 44.7% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 26% | 27% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:19 | 33:29 | 30:07 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.7 | Own 29.7 | Own 29.7 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%