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2026 · THROUGH WK 8

American · 6-1 · 3-0 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 4-3

UTSA Roadrunners

HC Jeff Traylor (7th yr) · OC Rick Bowie · DC Jess Loepp

STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (5 OF 6) · BASE D 3-4-4 · SHOTGUN 98%

Power rating−0.573rd
CFP odds2%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.5of 12
Fan pulse—14 of 30 scored

American · 6-1 · 3-0 CONF · ATS 4-3 · O/U 4-3

UTSA

Roadrunners · HC Jeff Traylor (7th yr) · starts in 11 (5 of 6) · base D 3-4-4

Power rating−0.573rd
CFP odds · outlook2%—NEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT
Proj. wins8.5of 12
Fan pulse—14 of 30 scored

UTSA

6-1 · 3-0 American

POWER RATING−0.573rd in FBS
CFP ODDS2%no change
PROJ. WINS8.5of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→LONG SHOT

1 loss now · CFP 2% in sims · CCG 31% · title 12%

FAN PULSE—14 of 30 scored

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UTSA · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H

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Schedule & resultsSchedule

POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED

UTSA schedule and results
Wk
Opponent
Result
Line
ATS
Net EPA
Off SR
Def SR
Win prob
Plays
s/play
1UT Rio Grande ValleyUT Rio Grande ValleyW45–16−28.5−28.5W+0.4864%36%93%5728.7
2at Texas Stateat Texas StateW31–26+1.5+1.5W+0.0146%47%58%7424.9
3at Texasat TexasL6–30+30+30W−0.4227%45%3%4628.0
4Colorado StateColorado StateW59–45−14.5−14.5L+0.2051%40%74%6821.0
5at Riceat RiceW16–14−12−12L+0.1237%31%56%7026.9
6South FloridaSouth FloridaW31–24−5.5−5.5W+0.0357%41%63%7427.3
7NavyNavyW38–34−5.5−5.5L−0.1944%50%60%7027.1
8at Tulaneat TulaneNEXTSAT 8:00 ESPNUSAT 8:00−2.5−2.5————47%123—
9BYE
10at Florida Atlanticat Florida AtlanticNOV 5NOV 5−0.2 proj−0.250%
11North TexasNorth TexasNOV 14NOV 14+4.9 proj+4.938%
12at UABat UABNOV 21NOV 21−4.3 proj−4.360%
13TulsaTulsaNOV 28NOV 28−2.9 proj−2.957%

Success rate by down & distance

1st67%n 3100%n 451%n 1730%n 9
2nd69%n 2654%n 3743%n 5815%n 26
3rd69%n 2641%n 1721%n 2821%n 19
4th75%n 875%n 4—n 00%n 1

Formation & personnelFormation

PBP TAGS · 433 OF 439 PLAYS433 OF 439 PLAYS TAGGED

Formation splits
LookLook · usage
Usage
Pass %Pass
EPA/playEPA
SR
Shotgun98%98%51%+0.1346%
Under center2%2%57%+0.2729%
No-huddle81%81%54%+0.1147%
Huddle19%19%42%+0.2144%
StartersSTARTERS
115 of 6 games101 of 6BASE D3-4-45 of 6
115 of 63-4-4base D · 5 of 6

In shotgun on 98 % of tagged snaps, passing 51 % of the time (+0.12 EPA a play; +0.27 under center). No-huddle on 81 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 5 of 6 games. Base defense 3-4-4 (5 of 6).

Next game

SAT 8:00 ESPNU · YULMAN STADIUMSAT 8:00 ESPNU

at TulaneLINE−2.5MODEL+1.4WP47%

Refs

JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026

Judgment flags over expected by crew conference
Crews from
FOE / G
90% range
Games
Read
American crews−0.6 to +0.3 · 34 games−0.2−0.6 to +0.334NOISE
C-USA crews−0.5 to +0.6 · 11 games+0.1−0.5 to +0.611NOISE
SEC crews— · 3 games−0.6—3NOISE
Mountain West crews— · 2 games+1.3—2NOISE
Sun Belt crews— · 2 games+3.0—2NOISE
ACC crews— · 1 game−0.6—1NOISE
Big 12 crews— · 1 game−3.8—1NOISE
Pac-12 crews— · 1 game+3.1—1NOISE
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTCharles Lamertina−2.4 / g · 3 games · noise−2.4 / g · 3 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTScott Hardin+1.7 / g · 3 games · noise+1.7 / g · 3 g · noise

+ = more judgment flags on UTSA than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 6 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 6 of 8 games · + = more on UTSA than expected · no lean before 8 games

Key players

Unit statsEfficiency

OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED

UTSA offense statistics
MetricStat
UTSAUTSA
RankRK
FBS avgVS FBS
EPA / play+0.0858th+0.06
Success rate43.6%52nd42.3%
Explosiveness1.24113th1.30
Rush EPA / play+0.1331st+0.07
Pass EPA / play+0.0694th+0.11
Passing downs SR29.2%104th31.1%
Line yards3.2367th3.21
Sack rate allowed4.0%45th5.3%
3rd-down conversion39%81st41%
Points / opportunity4.0087th4.27
Red zone TD rate50%119th63%
Seconds / play26.844th28.0