Western Michigan
5-25-2 · 3-0 MAC · ATS 3-4
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · CBSSN
Glass Bowl · Toledo
WIN PROB
63%
TOL
Toledo
5-25-2 · 2-1 MAC · ATS 3-3-1
- Spread
- TOL −3
- Open −3.5 · −104
- Total
- 47
- Open 45.5 · o −110
- Model line
- TOL −5.6+2.6
- Model total 51.3
- Win probability
- 63%
- Projected score
- 22.9 – 28.5
- WMU – TOL
- Projected plays
- 127
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TOL −3
- open −3.5
- Model
- −5.6+2.6
- TOL
- Total
- 47
- model 51.3
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Toledo passvs Western Michigan pass Dvs WMU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 35th+0.07 | 88th+0.03 | 33 | TOL +4.8 |
| Toledo runvs Western Michigan run Dvs WMU run D | 98th−0.04 | 49th−0.03 | 31 | WMU +3.4 |
  Western Michigan runvs Toledo run Dvs TOL run D | 56th+0.02 | 33rd−0.06 | 39 | TOL +2.5 |
PaceWMU 34.8 s · TOL 26.5 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 127 | U 1.8 |
| Western Michigan passvs Toledo pass Dvs TOL pass D | 74th−0.02 | 60th−0.02 | 25 | TOL +1.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TOL +4.8
Toledo's passing game vs the Western Michigan pass defense
Toledo gains +0.19 EPA a play on the pass (35th); Western Michigan allows +0.15 (88th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseToledo
TOL OFFWhen Toledo has the ball
DefenseWestern Michigan
WMU DEF- +0.0473rdEPA / play83rd+0.08
- 40.8%82ndSuccess rate101st44.6%
- 1.3529thExplosiveness13th1.21
- +0.0398thRush EPA / play49th+0.04
- +0.1935thPass EPA / dropback88th+0.15
- 47.0%66thStandard downs SR86th48.7%
- 29.1%107thPassing downs SR94th32.2%
- 3.2660thLine yards86th3.20
- 10.5%19thHavoc rate97th13.0%
- 4.3367thPoints / opportunity13th3.07
- +0.1930thEarly-down EPA / play60th+0.02
- 41.2%66th3rd-down conversion31st32.9%
- 13.5%42ndStuff rate108th13.8%
- 0.9%3rdSack rate25th7.3%
- 72%31stRed zone TD rate55th57%
Toledo's offense rates higher in 10 of 15. Widest gap: havoc rate (19th vs 97th).
OffenseWestern Michigan
WMU OFFWhen Western Michigan has the ball
DefenseToledo
TOL DEF- +0.0663rdEPA / play50th+0.03
- 42.5%58thSuccess rate26th38.7%
- 1.22123rdExplosiveness118th1.36
- +0.0856thRush EPA / play33rd+0.01
- +0.1074thPass EPA / dropback60th+0.10
- 47.8%56thStandard downs SR16th43.1%
- 30.3%85thPassing downs SR31st29.3%
- 3.3349thLine yards39th2.86
- 9.6%15thHavoc rate63rd14.6%
- 4.2470thPoints / opportunity34th3.51
- +0.1065thEarly-down EPA / play17th−0.12
- 43.6%47th3rd-down conversion70th38.8%
- 11.9%26thStuff rate36th19.1%
- 5.0%72ndSack rate31st7.1%
- 70%40thRed zone TD rate44th53%
Toledo's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (85th vs 31st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | WMUWMU | TOLTOL | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 34.8 | 26.5 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 58.7 | 68.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 36.5% | 51.1% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −11.7% | +4.3% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 34.2% | 47.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 26% | 34% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 31:17 | 29:01 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.5 | Own 31.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%