Oklahoma vs Mississippi State

Oklahoma

3-33-3 · 1-2 SEC · ATS 2-4

3:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · SEC Network

Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville

WIN PROB

61%

MSST

Mississippi State

4-24-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 4-2

Spread: OU −2.5; Open −2.5 · −110
Total: 47.5; Open 46.5 · o −110
Model line: MSST −4.8+7.3; Model total 49.9
Win probability: 61%
Projected score: 22.6 – 27.4; OU – MSST
Projected plays: 132; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: OU −2.5; open −2.5
Model: −4.8+7.3; MSST
Total: 47.5; model 49.9

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Oklahoma runvs Mississippi State run Dvs MSST run DBIGGEST EDGE	128th−0.11	39th−0.05	30	MSST +7.0
Mississippi State passvs Oklahoma pass Dvs OU pass D	30th+0.09	13th−0.14	35	OU +2.6
Mississippi State runvs Oklahoma run Dvs OU run D	13th+0.10	21st−0.08	31	MSST +1.3
Oklahoma passvs Mississippi State pass Dvs MSST pass D	86th−0.05	103rd+0.06	36	OU +0.8
PaceOU 25.9 s · MSST 21.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays132 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	132	O 0.2

BIGGEST EDGE · MSST +7.0

The Mississippi State run defense vs Oklahoma's run game

Oklahoma gains −0.04 EPA a play on the run (128th); Mississippi State allows +0.02 (39th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseMississippi State

MSST OFF

When Mississippi State has the ball

DefenseOklahoma

OU DEF

+0.2314thEPA / play12th−0.09
48.8%9thSuccess rate3rd35.1%
1.3624thExplosiveness97th1.33
+0.1713thRush EPA / play21st−0.01
+0.2130thPass EPA / dropback13th−0.03
52.9%10thStandard downs SR2nd40.2%
34.0%23rdPassing downs SR26th29.1%
3.2758thLine yards38th2.86
14.1%83rdHavoc rate22nd17.1%
4.9728thPoints / opportunity16th3.12
65%65thRed zone TD rate16th46%

Oklahoma's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (24th vs 97th).

OffenseOklahoma

OU OFF

When Oklahoma has the ball

DefenseMississippi State

MSST DEF

−0.06115thEPA / play82nd+0.08
40.6%86thSuccess rate109th45.1%
1.19132ndExplosiveness21st1.23
−0.04128thRush EPA / play39th+0.02
+0.0786thPass EPA / dropback103rd+0.17
45.2%101stStandard downs SR113th50.2%
30.4%84thPassing downs SR77th31.1%
2.63134thLine yards87th3.21
18.6%133rdHavoc rate42nd15.5%
3.67108thPoints / opportunity116th4.71
44%132ndRed zone TD rate112th70%

Mississippi State's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (132nd vs 21st).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Oklahoma and Mississippi State, season to date
Metric	OUOU	MSSTMSST	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	25.9	21.6	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	62.0	69.8	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	60.1%	52.5%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+5.4%	+2.8%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	57.7%	47.9%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	15%	32%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:05	27:35	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 27.2	Own 29.3	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Oklahoma

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −1.4% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Eddy Pierre-Louis · OLEddy Pierre-LouisOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Jacobe Johnson · DBJacobe JohnsonDB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ryan Fodje · OLRyan FodjeOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.4
REPORTEDOUT
· perperCarson Field· 2d
Out
Taylor Heim · LBTaylor HeimLB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Trell Harris · WRTrell HarrisWR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.5
Out
Trynae Washington · TETrynae WashingtonTE · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Xavier Robinson · RBXavier RobinsonRB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Doubtful
Elijah Thomas · WRElijah ThomasWR · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%0.0
Questionable
Eli Bowen · DBEli BowenDB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Heath Ozaeta · OLHeath OzaetaOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Questionable
Michael Fasusi · OLMichael FasusiOL · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Available
Parker Livingstone · WRParker LivingstoneWR · SOReport trail: Questionable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Tory Blaylock · RBTory BlaylockRB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

Mississippi State

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −2.6% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Diesel Moye · DLDiesel MoyeDL · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out for season
Trevion Williams · DLTrevion WilliamsDL · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ayden Williams · WRAyden WilliamsWR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Isaac Smith · SIsaac SmithS · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Jalen Smith · LBJalen SmithLB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Questionable
Kamario Taylor · QBKamario TaylorQB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−1.9
Available
DJ Chester · OLDJ ChesterOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Fluff Bothwell · RBFluff BothwellRB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0
Available
Zakari Tillman · LBZakari TillmanLB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

REPORTED = VERIFIED BEAT-WRITER POST, CONFIRMED BY A TARGETED X CHECK · OFFICIAL STAYS THE STATUS OF RECORD

Line movement

THU 9:05PTotal 45 → 46
FRI 5:10PTotal 50.5 → 46.5 · 75% tickets overTotal 50.5 → 46.5 · 75% on overRLM
FRI 6:30PTotal 46 → 47
FRI 8:00PSpread −3.5 → −2.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread OUSTEAM · 4 BOOKS	−2.5	−2.5	+4.8
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM	46.5	47.5	49.9
Moneyline OU	−140	−135	+159

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

OU −2.5 · 68% / 74%MSST +2.5 · 32% / 26%

Over · 75% / 46%Under · 25% / 54%

DraftKings bettors, as of 7:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 29-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

SEC Network

Play-by-playDave Neal

AnalystCole Cubelic

SidelineTori Petry

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny: 76°
mph ESE · G12: 5
Precip: 0%
Surface: Grass

RefereeCrew TBA

RestOU 7d · MSST 7d

Injury report

Oklahoma

Mississippi State

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew