Oklahoma
3-33-3 · 1-2 SEC · ATS 2-4
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · SEC Network
Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville
WIN PROB
61%
MSST
Mississippi State
4-24-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- OU −2.5
- Open −2.5 · −110
- Total
- 47.5
- Open 46.5 · o −110
- Model line
- MSST −4.8+7.3
- Model total 49.9
- Win probability
- 61%
- Projected score
- 22.6 – 27.4
- OU – MSST
- Projected plays
- 132
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- OU −2.5
- open −2.5
- Model
- −4.8+7.3
- MSST
- Total
- 47.5
- model 49.9
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Oklahoma runvs Mississippi State run Dvs MSST run DBIGGEST EDGE | 128th−0.11 | 39th−0.05 | 30 | MSST +7.0 |
  Mississippi State passvs Oklahoma pass Dvs OU pass D | 30th+0.09 | 13th−0.14 | 35 | OU +2.6 |
| Mississippi State runvs Oklahoma run Dvs OU run D | 13th+0.10 | 21st−0.08 | 31 | MSST +1.3 |
| Oklahoma passvs Mississippi State pass Dvs MSST pass D | 86th−0.05 | 103rd+0.06 | 36 | OU +0.8 |
PaceOU 25.9 s · MSST 21.6 s a snap · avg 131 plays132 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 132 | O 0.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MSST +7.0
The Mississippi State run defense vs Oklahoma's run game
Oklahoma gains −0.04 EPA a play on the run (128th); Mississippi State allows +0.02 (39th). About 30 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseMississippi State
MSST OFFWhen Mississippi State has the ball
DefenseOklahoma
OU DEF- +0.2314thEPA / play12th−0.09
- 48.8%9thSuccess rate3rd35.1%
- 1.3624thExplosiveness97th1.33
- +0.1713thRush EPA / play21st−0.01
- +0.2130thPass EPA / dropback13th−0.03
- 52.9%10thStandard downs SR2nd40.2%
- 34.0%23rdPassing downs SR26th29.1%
- 3.2758thLine yards38th2.86
- 14.1%83rdHavoc rate22nd17.1%
- 4.9728thPoints / opportunity16th3.12
- +0.1930thEarly-down EPA / play19th−0.11
- 48.4%25th3rd-down conversion2nd27.1%
- 18.4%100thStuff rate43rd18.5%
- 7.3%109thSack rate2nd11.2%
- 65%65thRed zone TD rate16th46%
Oklahoma's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (109th vs 2nd).
OffenseOklahoma
OU OFFWhen Oklahoma has the ball
DefenseMississippi State
MSST DEF- −0.06115thEPA / play82nd+0.08
- 40.6%86thSuccess rate109th45.1%
- 1.19132ndExplosiveness21st1.23
- −0.04128thRush EPA / play39th+0.02
- +0.0786thPass EPA / dropback103rd+0.17
- 45.2%101stStandard downs SR113th50.2%
- 30.4%84thPassing downs SR77th31.1%
- 2.63134thLine yards87th3.21
- 18.6%133rdHavoc rate42nd15.5%
- 3.67108thPoints / opportunity116th4.71
- −0.08128thEarly-down EPA / play80th+0.06
- 32.9%121st3rd-down conversion113th43.8%
- 21.8%130thStuff rate101st14.5%
- 7.4%112thSack rate62nd5.8%
- 44%132ndRed zone TD rate112th70%
Mississippi State's defense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (132nd vs 21st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | OUOU | MSSTMSST | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 25.9 | 21.6 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.0 | 69.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 60.1% | 52.5% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +5.4% | +2.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 57.7% | 47.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 15% | 32% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:05 | 27:35 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.2 | Own 29.3 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%