Iowa
#15 · 5-1#15 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · FS1
Huntington Bank Stadium · Minneapolis
WIN PROB
70%
IOWA
Minnesota
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- IOWA −7.5
- Open −6 · −107
- Total
- 40.5
- Open 41.5 · o −111
- Model line
- IOWA −8.6+1.1
- Model total 49.8
- Win probability
- 70%
- Projected score
- 29.2 – 20.6
- IOWA – MINN
- Projected plays
- 124
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- IOWA −7.5
- open −6
- Model
- −8.6+1.1
- IOWA
- Total
- 40.5
- model 49.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Minnesota runvs Iowa run Dvs IOWA run DBIGGEST EDGE | 138th−0.17 | 2nd−0.15 | 26 | IOWA +12.0 |
  Iowa runvs Minnesota run Dvs MINN run D | 46th+0.04 | 90th+0.03 | 28 | IOWA +3.0 |
PaceIOWA 29.0 s · MINN 36.4 s a snap · avg 131 plays124 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 124 | U 3.0 |
| Iowa passvs Minnesota pass Dvs MINN pass D | 38th+0.06 | 31st−0.08 | 34 | MINN +0.7 |
| Minnesota passvs Iowa pass Dvs IOWA pass D | 99th−0.06 | 101st+0.06 | 36 | IOWA +0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · IOWA +12.0
The Iowa run defense vs Minnesota's run game
Minnesota gains −0.10 EPA a play on the run (138th); Iowa allows −0.08 (2nd). About 26 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseMinnesota
MINN OFFWhen Minnesota has the ball
DefenseIowa
IOWA DEF- −0.06116thEPA / play40th+0.01
- 40.0%95thSuccess rate32nd39.3%
- 1.22120thExplosiveness41st1.27
- −0.10138thRush EPA / play2nd−0.08
- +0.0599thPass EPA / dropback101st+0.17
- 47.2%65thStandard downs SR32nd45.2%
- 27.4%124thPassing downs SR50th29.9%
- 2.28138thLine yards49th2.93
- 11.8%37thHavoc rate59th14.9%
- 3.67108thPoints / opportunity35th3.53
- −0.06117thEarly-down EPA / play40th−0.02
- 38.0%90th3rd-down conversion58th36.8%
- 22.5%132ndStuff rate58th17.3%
- 1.6%8thSack rate10th8.3%
- 60%84thRed zone TD rate8th44%
Iowa's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (138th vs 2nd).
OffenseIowa
IOWA OFFWhen Iowa has the ball
DefenseMinnesota
MINN DEF- +0.1435thEPA / play69th+0.05
- 44.3%43rdSuccess rate76th42.7%
- 1.2699thExplosiveness70th1.30
- +0.1146thRush EPA / play90th+0.10
- +0.1838thPass EPA / dropback31st+0.04
- 50.3%29thStandard downs SR56th46.5%
- 29.5%98thPassing downs SR117th33.5%
- 3.6413thLine yards110th3.37
- 9.1%7thHavoc rate12th18.2%
- 4.7144thPoints / opportunity130th5.09
- +0.2417thEarly-down EPA / play79th+0.06
- 42.1%59th3rd-down conversion38th34.6%
- 11.9%23rdStuff rate98th14.6%
- 2.5%17thSack rate6th9.0%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate132nd81%
Iowa's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (14th vs 132nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | IOWAIOWA | MINNMINN | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 29.0 | 36.4 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 61.7 | 62.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.1% | 48.2% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.0% | +0.7% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 51.4% | 46.2% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 12% | 17% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 26:23 | 32:47 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.9 | Own 35.5 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%