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SAT 3:30 · FS1 · MINNEAPOLIS
Iowa
#15 · 5-1#15 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
3:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · FS1
Huntington Bank Stadium · Minneapolis
WIN PROB
70%
IOWA
Minnesota
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 4-2
Spread
IOWA −7.5
Open −6 · −107
Total
40.5
Open 41.5 · o −111
Model line
IOWA −8.6+1.1
Model total 49.8
Win probability
70%
Projected score
29.2 – 20.6
IOWA – MINN
Projected plays
124
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
IOWA −7.5
open −6
Model
−8.6+1.1
IOWA
Total
40.5
model 49.8

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Minnesota runvs Iowa run Dvs IOWA run DBIGGEST EDGE
138th−0.172nd−0.1526IOWA +12.0
Iowa runvs Minnesota run Dvs MINN run D
46th+0.0490th+0.0328IOWA +3.0
PaceIOWA 29.0 s · MINN 36.4 s a snap · avg 131 plays124 plays vs 131 avg
——124U 3.0
Iowa passvs Minnesota pass Dvs MINN pass D
38th+0.0631st−0.0834MINN +0.7
Minnesota passvs Iowa pass Dvs IOWA pass D
99th−0.06101st+0.0636IOWA +0.1

BIGGEST EDGE · IOWA +12.0

The Iowa run defense vs Minnesota's run game

Minnesota gains −0.10 EPA a play on the run (138th); Iowa allows −0.08 (2nd). About 26 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseMinnesota
MINN OFF

When Minnesota has the ball

DefenseIowa
IOWA DEF
  • −0.06116thEPA / play40th+0.01
  • 40.0%95thSuccess rate32nd39.3%
  • 1.22120thExplosiveness41st1.27
  • −0.10138thRush EPA / play2nd−0.08
  • +0.0599thPass EPA / dropback101st+0.17
  • 47.2%65thStandard downs SR32nd45.2%
  • 27.4%124thPassing downs SR50th29.9%
  • 2.28138thLine yards49th2.93
  • 11.8%37thHavoc rate59th14.9%
  • 3.67108thPoints / opportunity35th3.53
  • 60%84thRed zone TD rate8th44%

Iowa's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (138th vs 2nd).

OffenseIowa
IOWA OFF

When Iowa has the ball

DefenseMinnesota
MINN DEF
  • +0.1435thEPA / play69th+0.05
  • 44.3%43rdSuccess rate76th42.7%
  • 1.2699thExplosiveness70th1.30
  • +0.1146thRush EPA / play90th+0.10
  • +0.1838thPass EPA / dropback31st+0.04
  • 50.3%29thStandard downs SR56th46.5%
  • 29.5%98thPassing downs SR117th33.5%
  • 3.6413thLine yards110th3.37
  • 9.1%7thHavoc rate12th18.2%
  • 4.7144thPoints / opportunity130th5.09
  • 75%14thRed zone TD rate132nd81%

Iowa's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (14th vs 132nd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Iowa and Minnesota, season to date
MetricIOWAIOWAMINNMINNFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral29.036.428.9
Plays per gamePlays per game61.762.365.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral55.1%48.2%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+3.0%+0.7%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral51.4%46.2%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations12%17%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession26:2332:4730:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.9Own 35.5Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · FRI 8:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT) · REPORTED = GRADED BEAT WRITER

Iowa

BIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −0.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Minnesota

BIG TEN REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −1.6% TO PLAYIMPACT

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

REPORTED = VERIFIED BEAT-WRITER POST, CONFIRMED BY A TARGETED X CHECK · OFFICIAL STAYS THE STATUS OF RECORD

Line movement

  • SUN 7:07ATotal 42.5 → 41
  • SUN 4:17PSpread −5 → −6
  • SUN 5:12PSpread −6 → −7
  • WED 6:30PTotal 42.5 → 40.5 · 67% tickets overTotal 42.5 → 40.5 · 67% on overRLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread IOWA
−6−7.5−8.6
TotalRLM
41.540.549.8
Moneyline IOWA
−234−280−233

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

IOWA −7.5 · 59% / 31%MINN +7.5 · 41% / 69%
Over · 67% / 11%Under · 33% / 89%

DraftKings bettors, as of 7:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 56-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

FS1
CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Slight Chance Rain Showers
73°
mph SW · G24
10
Precip
15%
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestIOWA 15d · MINN 14dBOTH OFF BYE