- Spread
- BALL −14.5
- Open −10.5 · −109
- Total
- 51
- Open 51 · o −110
- Model line
- BALL −10.8+3.7
- Model total 53.6
- Win probability
- 74%
- Projected score
- 21.4 – 32.2
- SAC – BALL
- Projected plays
- 127
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- BALL −14.5
- open −10.5
- Model
- −10.8+3.7
- BALL
- Total
- 51
- model 53.6
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Ball State passvs Sacramento State pass Dvs SAC pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 62nd+0.01 | 119th+0.11 | 34 | BALL +6.0 |
  Sacramento State passvs Ball State pass Dvs BALL pass D | 138th−0.26 | 131st+0.16 | 40 | BALL +5.3 |
PaceSAC 32.0 s · BALL 34.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 127 | U 1.7 |
| Sacramento State runvs Ball State run Dvs BALL run D | 126th−0.11 | 120th+0.08 | 24 | BALL +0.9 |
| Ball State runvs Sacramento State run Dvs SAC run D | 112th−0.06 | 119th+0.08 | 30 | BALL +0.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · BALL +6.0
Ball State's passing game vs the Sacramento State pass defense
Ball State gains +0.12 EPA a play on the pass (62nd); Sacramento State allows +0.23 (119th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Ball State has the ball
- +0.0384thEPA / play129th+0.21
- 39.1%105thSuccess rate97th44.3%
- 1.3627thExplosiveness125th1.38
- +0.01112thRush EPA / play119th+0.15
- +0.1262ndPass EPA / dropback119th+0.23
- 43.8%123rdStandard downs SR103rd49.7%
- 31.0%67thPassing downs SR41st29.6%
- 2.99102ndLine yards123rd3.45
- 13.6%71stHavoc rate138th7.4%
- 4.8039thPoints / opportunity123rd4.84
- 0.00104thEarly-down EPA / play129th+0.19
- 33.8%112th3rd-down conversion100th41.4%
- 18.8%108thStuff rate128th11.8%
- 3.1%28thSack rate119th3.5%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate120th75%
Ball State's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (14th vs 120th).
When Sacramento State has the ball
- −0.20138thEPA / play135th+0.23
- 37.5%128thSuccess rate111th45.3%
- 1.15138thExplosiveness133rd1.41
- −0.04126thRush EPA / play120th+0.15
- −0.14138thPass EPA / dropback131st+0.28
- 45.0%104thStandard downs SR94th49.2%
- 26.2%135thPassing downs SR121st33.9%
- 2.48137thLine yards80th3.19
- 19.4%135thHavoc rate75th14.1%
- 2.52136thPoints / opportunity110th4.62
- −0.27138thEarly-down EPA / play128th+0.18
- 32.9%119th3rd-down conversion107th42.3%
- 26.3%137thStuff rate66th16.7%
- 4.7%58thSack rate94th4.7%
- 31%138thRed zone TD rate133rd83%
Ball State's defense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (137th vs 66th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | SACSAC | BALLBALL | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 32.0 | 34.1 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 64.9 | 62.6 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 49.0% | 32.9% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +0.8% | −17.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 47.2% | 26.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 29:15 | 29:09 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 30.3 | Own 26.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%