Sacramento State vs Ball State

Sacramento State

1-61-6 · 0-4 MAC · ATS 2-5

3:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN+

Scheumann Stadium · Muncie

WIN PROB

74%

BALL

Ball State

2-52-5 · 1-2 MAC · ATS 4-3

Spread: BALL −14.5; Open −10.5 · −109
Total: 51; Open 51 · o −110
Model line: BALL −10.8+3.7; Model total 53.6
Win probability: 74%
Projected score: 21.4 – 32.2; SAC – BALL
Projected plays: 127; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: BALL −14.5; open −10.5
Model: −10.8+3.7; BALL
Total: 51; model 53.6

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Ball State passvs Sacramento State pass Dvs SAC pass DBIGGEST EDGE	62nd+0.01	119th+0.11	34	BALL +6.0
Sacramento State passvs Ball State pass Dvs BALL pass D	138th−0.26	131st+0.16	40	BALL +5.3
PaceSAC 32.0 s · BALL 34.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays127 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	127	U 1.7
Sacramento State runvs Ball State run Dvs BALL run D	126th−0.11	120th+0.08	24	BALL +0.9
Ball State runvs Sacramento State run Dvs SAC run D	112th−0.06	119th+0.08	30	BALL +0.6

BIGGEST EDGE · BALL +6.0

Ball State's passing game vs the Sacramento State pass defense

Ball State gains +0.12 EPA a play on the pass (62nd); Sacramento State allows +0.23 (119th). About 34 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseBall State

BALL OFF

When Ball State has the ball

DefenseSacramento State

SAC DEF

+0.0384thEPA / play129th+0.21
39.1%105thSuccess rate97th44.3%
1.3627thExplosiveness125th1.38
+0.01112thRush EPA / play119th+0.15
+0.1262ndPass EPA / dropback119th+0.23
43.8%123rdStandard downs SR103rd49.7%
31.0%67thPassing downs SR41st29.6%
2.99102ndLine yards123rd3.45
13.6%71stHavoc rate138th7.4%
4.8039thPoints / opportunity123rd4.84
75%14thRed zone TD rate120th75%

Ball State's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (14th vs 120th).

OffenseSacramento State

SAC OFF

When Sacramento State has the ball

DefenseBall State

BALL DEF

−0.20138thEPA / play135th+0.23
37.5%128thSuccess rate111th45.3%
1.15138thExplosiveness133rd1.41
−0.04126thRush EPA / play120th+0.15
−0.14138thPass EPA / dropback131st+0.28
45.0%104thStandard downs SR94th49.2%
26.2%135thPassing downs SR121st33.9%
2.48137thLine yards80th3.19
19.4%135thHavoc rate75th14.1%
2.52136thPoints / opportunity110th4.62
31%138thRed zone TD rate133rd83%

Ball State's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (135th vs 75th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Sacramento State and Ball State, season to date
Metric	SACSAC	BALLBALL	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	32.0	34.1	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	64.9	62.6	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	49.0%	32.9%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+0.8%	−17.0%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	47.2%	26.4%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	27%	27%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	29:15	29:09	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 30.3	Own 26.7	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →