Oregon
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
3:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · BTN
Memorial Stadium · Champaign
WIN PROB
74%
ORE
Illinois
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- ORE −9.5
- Open −11.5 · −114
- Total
- 49.5
- Open 51 · o −111
- Model line
- ORE −10.6+1.1
- Model total 54.9
- Win probability
- 74%
- Projected score
- 32.8 – 22.1
- ORE – ILL
- Projected plays
- 132
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- ORE −9.5
- open −11.5
- Model
- −10.6+1.1
- ORE
- Total
- 49.5
- model 54.9
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Oregon passvs Illinois pass Dvs ILL pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 57th+0.01 | 136th+0.22 | 37 | ORE +12.0 |
  Illinois passvs Oregon pass Dvs ORE pass D | 32nd+0.08 | 7th−0.18 | 36 | ORE +4.9 |
| Illinois runvs Oregon run Dvs ORE run D | 71st0.00 | 9th−0.11 | 30 | ORE +4.8 |
| Oregon runvs Illinois run Dvs ILL run D | 103rd−0.05 | 92nd+0.04 | 29 | ILL +0.4 |
PaceORE 24.8 s · ILL 31.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays132 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 132 | O 0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ORE +12.0
Oregon's passing game vs the Illinois pass defense
Oregon gains +0.13 EPA a play on the pass (57th); Illinois allows +0.33 (136th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseIllinois
ILL OFFWhen Illinois has the ball
DefenseOregon
ORE DEF- +0.1526thEPA / play3rd−0.13
- 47.0%17thSuccess rate6th35.7%
- 1.26103rdExplosiveness60th1.29
- +0.0771stRush EPA / play9th−0.04
- +0.2032ndPass EPA / dropback7th−0.06
- 50.3%28thStandard downs SR3rd40.7%
- 34.8%16thPassing downs SR40th29.6%
- 3.3052ndLine yards19th2.73
- 10.2%17thHavoc rate30th16.2%
- 4.4462ndPoints / opportunity71st4.03
- 58%92ndRed zone TD rate12th45%
Oregon's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (92nd vs 12th).
OffenseOregon
ORE OFFWhen Oregon has the ball
DefenseIllinois
ILL DEF- +0.0191stEPA / play134th+0.23
- 41.0%79thSuccess rate118th46.4%
- 1.2789thExplosiveness96th1.32
- +0.02103rdRush EPA / play92nd+0.11
- +0.1357thPass EPA / dropback136th+0.33
- 46.8%74thStandard downs SR99th49.5%
- 29.7%95thPassing downs SR129th35.4%
- 2.95111thLine yards65th3.11
- 15.7%110thHavoc rate119th11.7%
- 4.7841stPoints / opportunity132nd5.33
- 59%88thRed zone TD rate92nd65%
Oregon's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (41st vs 132nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | OREORE | ILLILL | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 24.8 | 31.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.8 | 61.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 53.2% | 54.2% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −0.3% | +1.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 49.3% | 50.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 31% | 37% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:57 | 28:30 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.8 | Own 28.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · FRI 8:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
- OutAaron Flowers · DBAaron FlowersDB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.2
- OutBrayden Platt · LBBrayden PlattLB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutDante Moore · QBDante MooreQB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.7
- OutEvan Stewart · WREvan StewartWR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutImmanuel Iheanacho · OLImmanuel IheanachoOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutJalen Lott · WRJalen LottWR · FRReport trail: Available, Available, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutJeremiah McClellan · WRJeremiah McClellanWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.2
- OutKawika Rogers · OLKawika RogersOL · SRReport trail: Available, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.2
- OutMatthew Johnson · EDGEMatthew JohnsonEDGE · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutMessiah Hampton · WRMessiah HamptonWR · FRReport trail: Available, Available, OutT-3 → T-10%0.0
- OutTrent Ferguson · OLTrent FergusonOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutBJ Thurman · TEBJ ThurmanTE · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%0.0
- OutCa'Lil Valentine · RBCa'Lil ValentineRB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.8
- OutCarter Smith · LBCarter SmithLB · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutDemetrius John · DLDemetrius JohnDL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutKai Pritchard · OLKai PritchardOL · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutKatin Houser · QBKatin HouserQB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−3.8
- OutKayden Bennett · LBKayden BennettLB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutTJ McMillen · OLTJ McMillenOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- QuestionableJayshon Platt · WRJayshon PlattWR · SRReport trail: Probable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- ProbableJack Paris · LBJack ParisLB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- AvailableChamp Smith · OLChamp SmithOL · FRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableDezmond Schuster · OLDezmond SchusterOL · SRReport trail: Probable, Available, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE
IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Line movement
−14
−12
−10.6MODEL- WED 6:30PSpread −14.5 → −9 · 57% tickets ORESpread −14.5 → −9 · 57% on ORERLM
- THU 7:09ASpread −9.5 → −8.5
- FRI 12:51PSpread −8.5 → −9.5
- FRI 6:15PTotal 50.5 → 49.5
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread ORERLM | −11.5 | −9.5 | −10.6 |
Total | 51.0 | 49.5 | 54.9 |
Moneyline ORE | −455 | −381 | −285 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
ORE −9.5 · 57% / 42%ILL +9.5 · 43% / 58%
Over · 48% / 76%Under · 52% / 24%
DraftKings bettors, as of 7:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 28-pt gap on the over suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
BTNCrewTBA
Also onERADM
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Partly Sunny
- 71°
- mph SSE
- 6
- Precip
- 0%
- Surface
- Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestORE 7d · ILL 14dILL OFF BYE