Oregon
4-24-2 · 2-1 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
3:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · BTN
Memorial Stadium · Champaign
WIN PROB
74%
ORE
Illinois
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big Ten · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- ORE −9.5
- Open −11.5 · −114
- Total
- 49.5
- Open 51 · o −111
- Model line
- ORE −10.6+1.1
- Model total 54.9
- Win probability
- 74%
- Projected score
- 32.8 – 22.1
- ORE – ILL
- Projected plays
- 132
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- ORE −9.5
- open −11.5
- Model
- −10.6+1.1
- ORE
- Total
- 49.5
- model 54.9
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Oregon passvs Illinois pass Dvs ILL pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 57th+0.01 | 136th+0.22 | 37 | ORE +12.0 |
  Illinois passvs Oregon pass Dvs ORE pass D | 32nd+0.08 | 7th−0.18 | 36 | ORE +4.9 |
| Illinois runvs Oregon run Dvs ORE run D | 71st0.00 | 9th−0.11 | 30 | ORE +4.8 |
| Oregon runvs Illinois run Dvs ILL run D | 103rd−0.05 | 92nd+0.04 | 29 | ILL +0.4 |
PaceORE 24.8 s · ILL 31.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays132 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 132 | O 0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ORE +12.0
Oregon's passing game vs the Illinois pass defense
Oregon gains +0.13 EPA a play on the pass (57th); Illinois allows +0.33 (136th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseIllinois
ILL OFFWhen Illinois has the ball
DefenseOregon
ORE DEF- +0.1526thEPA / play3rd−0.13
- 47.0%17thSuccess rate6th35.7%
- 1.26103rdExplosiveness60th1.29
- +0.0771stRush EPA / play9th−0.04
- +0.2032ndPass EPA / dropback7th−0.06
- 50.3%28thStandard downs SR3rd40.7%
- 34.8%16thPassing downs SR40th29.6%
- 3.3052ndLine yards19th2.73
- 10.2%17thHavoc rate30th16.2%
- 4.4462ndPoints / opportunity71st4.03
- +0.296thEarly-down EPA / play63rd+0.02
- 44.3%40th3rd-down conversion3rd27.5%
- 11.0%17thStuff rate56th17.4%
- 2.7%18thSack rate65th5.8%
- 58%92ndRed zone TD rate12th45%
Oregon's defense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (92nd vs 12th).
OffenseOregon
ORE OFFWhen Oregon has the ball
DefenseIllinois
ILL DEF- +0.0191stEPA / play134th+0.23
- 41.0%79thSuccess rate118th46.4%
- 1.2789thExplosiveness96th1.32
- +0.02103rdRush EPA / play92nd+0.11
- +0.1357thPass EPA / dropback136th+0.33
- 46.8%74thStandard downs SR99th49.5%
- 29.7%95thPassing downs SR129th35.4%
- 2.95111thLine yards65th3.11
- 15.7%110thHavoc rate119th11.7%
- 4.7841stPoints / opportunity132nd5.33
- +0.0581stEarly-down EPA / play134th+0.24
- 32.9%119th3rd-down conversion118th44.9%
- 18.7%106thStuff rate103rd14.4%
- 3.5%37thSack rate131st2.3%
- 59%88thRed zone TD rate92nd65%
Oregon's offense rates higher in 11 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (37th vs 131st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | OREORE | ILLILL | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 24.8 | 31.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 69.8 | 61.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 53.2% | 54.2% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −0.3% | +1.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 49.3% | 50.4% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 31% | 37% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:57 | 28:30 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.8 | Own 28.8 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%