- Spread
- M-OH −3.5
- Open PK · −110
- Total
- 40
- Open 43.5 · o −110
- Model line
- M-OH −3.3
- Model total 51.8
- Win probability
- 58%
- Projected score
- 27.5 – 24.3
- M-OH – CMU
- Projected plays
- 115
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- M-OH −3.5
- open PK
- Model
- −3.3
- M-OH
- Total
- 40
- model 51.8
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PaceM-OH 31.8 s · CMU 34.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays115 plays vs 131 avgBIGGEST EDGE | — | — | 115 | U 7.2 |
  Central Michigan passvs Miami (OH) pass Dvs M-OH pass D | 137th−0.23 | 104th+0.07 | 20 | M-OH +4.9 |
  Miami (OH) runvs Central Michigan run Dvs CMU run D | 92nd−0.03 | 127th+0.10 | 29 | M-OH +2.6 |
| Miami (OH) passvs Central Michigan pass Dvs CMU pass D | 60th+0.01 | 62nd−0.01 | 29 | CMU +0.1 |
| Central Michigan runvs Miami (OH) run Dvs M-OH run D | 51st+0.03 | 55th−0.03 | 38 | M-OH +0.0 |
BIGGEST EDGE · U 7.2
The pace fight
CMU snaps every 34.0 s, M-OH every 31.8 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.5 points. The model projects 115 plays against a 131 average. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Central Michigan has the ball
- −0.07119thEPA / play90th+0.10
- 38.0%127thSuccess rate89th43.9%
- 1.19131stExplosiveness88th1.31
- +0.1051stRush EPA / play55th+0.04
- −0.12137thPass EPA / dropback104th+0.18
- 45.4%95thStandard downs SR71st47.6%
- 26.0%136thPassing downs SR112th33.2%
- 3.6116thLine yards32nd2.80
- 13.1%59thHavoc rate81st13.7%
- 3.14127thPoints / opportunity91st4.28
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate135th86%
Miami (OH)'s defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (131st vs 88th).
When Miami (OH) has the ball
- +0.0569thEPA / play100th+0.12
- 38.6%117thSuccess rate124th47.2%
- 1.3817thExplosiveness12th1.21
- +0.0492ndRush EPA / play127th+0.17
- +0.1360thPass EPA / dropback62nd+0.10
- 44.1%117thStandard downs SR117th50.5%
- 30.4%85thPassing downs SR124th34.3%
- 3.1976thLine yards137th3.85
- 14.0%80thHavoc rate123rd11.6%
- 3.9491stPoints / opportunity60th3.91
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate110th70%
Miami (OH)'s offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (76th vs 137th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | M-OHM-OH | CMUCMU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.8 | 34.0 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 56.4 | 59.0 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 52.7% | 33.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +3.0% | −14.9% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 48.4% | 29.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 15% | 36% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:22 | 29:21 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 32.3 | Own 27.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
MAC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~SAT · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 7 game-day report8 OUT FOR SEASON · 3 OUT · 1 QUESTIONABLE
- Out for seasonKeith Reynolds · WR
- Out for seasonAdrian Walker Jr. · DB
- Out for seasonThomas Gotkowski · QB
- Out for seasonDavid McComb · QB
- Out for seasonMax Deckard · DB
- Out for seasonAnthony Ludington · DL
- Out for seasonShaun Shahu · OL
- Out for seasonEric Karner · TE
- OutDevin Hyatt · WR
- OutVito McConnell · LB
- OutBrayden Boeing · TE
- QuestionableGreg Smith Jr. · OL
Week 7 game-day report3 OUT FOR SEASON · 13 OUT
- Out for seasonHunter Zirkle · DL
- Out for seasonTommy McIntosh · WR
- Out for seasonJoey VanWetzinga · DL
- OutEd Conoran · DB
- OutVictor Earl · LB
- OutJeremiah Alston · LB
- OutJosiah Booker · DB
- OutShawn Foster II · WR
- OutTrey Liebhardt · DB
- OutJayden Clerveaux · RB
- OutJames Reinbold · DL
- OutKameran Hayward · DB
- OutRory Callahan · OL
- OutDasan Smith · OL
- OutTalon Smith · OL
- OutMax Van Fleet · DL
Line movement
- MON 5:19PTotal 42.5 → 41
- THU 2:00PSpread −2 → −3
- THU 2:00PTotal 41 → 40
- SAT 3:00ATotal 43.5 → 40 · 50% tickets overTotal 43.5 → 40 · 50% on overRLM
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread M-OH | PK | −3.5 | −3.3 |
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM | 43.5 | 40.0 | 51.8 |
Moneyline M-OH | −111 | −165 | −138 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
DraftKings bettors, as of 6:15 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 44-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
ESPN+Crew as reported, not official.
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Mostly Sunny
- 62°
- mph SSE · G12
- 6
- Precip
- 0%
- Surface
- Turf