Texas Tech
#8 · 6-0#8 · 6-0 · 3-0 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · FS1
Nippert Stadium · Cincinnati
WIN PROB
72%
TTU
Cincinnati
4-24-2 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 3-3
- Spread
- TTU −11.5
- Open −11.5 · −110
- Total
- 56.5
- Open 55.5 · o −112
- Model line
- TTU −9.8+1.7
- Model total 54.1
- Win probability
- 72%
- Projected score
- 31.9 – 22.2
- TTU – CIN
- Projected plays
- 131
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- TTU −11.5
- open −11.5
- Model
- −9.8+1.7
- TTU
- Total
- 56.5
- model 54.1
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Texas Tech passvs Cincinnati pass Dvs CIN pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 67th0.00 | 121st+0.12 | 32 | TTU +5.4 |
  Cincinnati passvs Texas Tech pass Dvs TTU pass D | 43rd+0.06 | 15th−0.14 | 30 | TTU +3.7 |
| Texas Tech runvs Cincinnati run Dvs CIN run D | 51st+0.03 | 76th+0.01 | 34 | TTU +2.0 |
| Cincinnati runvs Texas Tech run Dvs TTU run D | 22nd+0.08 | 15th−0.10 | 36 | TTU +1.0 |
PaceTTU 25.9 s · CIN 29.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays131 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 131 | U 0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · TTU +5.4
Texas Tech's passing game vs the Cincinnati pass defense
Texas Tech gains +0.12 EPA a play on the pass (67th); Cincinnati allows +0.23 (121st). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseCincinnati
CIN OFFWhen Cincinnati has the ball
DefenseTexas Tech
TTU DEF- +0.1435thEPA / play17th−0.07
- 43.8%50thSuccess rate21st38.3%
- 1.3627thExplosiveness101st1.33
- +0.1522ndRush EPA / play15th−0.03
- +0.1743rdPass EPA / dropback15th−0.03
- 48.2%51stStandard downs SR20th43.4%
- 33.1%30thPassing downs SR61st30.5%
- 3.5520thLine yards25th2.76
- 9.2%10thHavoc rate25th17.1%
- 4.8636thPoints / opportunity9th2.91
- 86%6thRed zone TD rate12th45%
Texas Tech's defense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (27th vs 101st).
OffenseTexas Tech
TTU OFFWhen Texas Tech has the ball
DefenseCincinnati
CIN DEF- +0.1048thEPA / play109th+0.14
- 46.2%28thSuccess rate103rd45.0%
- 1.25105thExplosiveness52nd1.28
- +0.1051stRush EPA / play76th+0.08
- +0.1267thPass EPA / dropback121st+0.23
- 49.6%38thStandard downs SR93rd49.1%
- 34.2%21stPassing downs SR119th33.9%
- 3.2270thLine yards87th3.20
- 16.7%123rdHavoc rate103rd12.9%
- 4.5559thPoints / opportunity101st4.38
- 55%104thRed zone TD rate54th56%
Texas Tech's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (21st vs 119th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | TTUTTU | CINCIN | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 25.9 | 29.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 66.5 | 64.8 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 51.6% | 44.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +0.3% | −4.7% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 50.0% | 43.2% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 32% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 28:14 | 29:01 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 33.2 | Own 28.9 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
BIG 12 AVAILABILITY · FRI 10:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
- OutCameron Dickey · RBCameron DickeyRB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−1.8
- OutDonte Lee Jr. · WRDonte Lee Jr.WR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutElias Gillen · OLElias GillenOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutHunter Zambrano · OLHunter ZambranoOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.3
- OutJalen Jones · WRJalen JonesWR · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- OutS'Vioarean Martin · CBS'Vioarean MartinCB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- QuestionablePeyton Morgan · SPeyton MorganS · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- ProbableMaddox Quiller · SMaddox QuillerS · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- AvailableHoward Sampson · OLHoward SampsonOL · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableJamond Mathis · LBJamond MathisLB · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableJordan Church · OLJordan ChurchOL · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailablePatrick McMath · OLPatrick McMathOL · SOReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- OutDaMari Witherspoon · TEDaMari WitherspoonTE · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%0.0
- OutJosh Hough · DLJosh HoughDL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.6
- OutNathan Nunn · DLNathan NunnDL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-10%−0.1
- QuestionableDevyn Zahursky · TEDevyn ZahurskyTE · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- QuestionableGi'Bran Payne · RBGi'Bran PayneRB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- ProbableCJ Crite · SCJ CriteS · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-179%0.0
- AvailableGavin Grover · TEGavin GroverTE · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
- AvailableMontay Weedon · LBMontay WeedonLB · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1100%0.0
OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE
IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Line movement
−11.5
−11
−10.5
−9.8MODEL- SUN 6:00PSpread −11.5 → −10.5STEAM · 4 BOOKS
- SUN 6:12PSpread −11.5 → −10.5
- MON 12:00PSpread −11.5 → −10.5 · 63% tickets TTUSpread −11.5 → −10.5 · 63% on TTURLM
- FRI 3:11PSpread −10.5 → −11.5
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread TTUSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM | −11.5 | −11.5 | −9.8 |
Total | 55.5 | 56.5 | 54.1 |
Moneyline TTU | −433 | −456 | −261 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
TTU −11.5 · 63% / 57%CIN +11.5 · 37% / 43%
Over · 78% / 95%Under · 22% / 5%
DraftKings bettors, as of 3:30 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 17-pt gap on the over suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
FS1CrewTBA
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Sunny
- 63°
- mph E
- 2
- Precip
- 0%
- Surface
- Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestTTU 7d · CIN 7d