LSU vs Auburn · havoc

LSU

#18 · 5-2#18 · 5-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 3-4

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ABC

Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn

WIN PROB

72%

LSU

Auburn

4-24-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 2-4

Spread: LSU −7; Open −6.5 · −115
Total: 51.5; Open 50.5 · o −107
Model line: LSU −9.6+2.6; Model total 46.4
Win probability: 72%
Projected score: 28.0 – 18.4; LSU – AUB
Projected plays: 149; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: LSU −7; open −6.5
Model: −9.6+2.6; LSU
Total: 51.5; model 46.4

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Auburn passvs LSU pass Dvs LSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	98th−0.06	1st−0.24	39	LSU +17.0
PaceLSU 26.6 s · AUB 22.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays149 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	149	O 5.4
Auburn runvs LSU run Dvs LSU run D	28th+0.07	5th−0.13	35	LSU +3.0
LSU passvs Auburn pass Dvs AUB pass D	22nd+0.13	27th−0.09	37	LSU +2.2
LSU runvs Auburn run Dvs AUB run D	59th+0.01	67th0.00	38	LSU +0.6

BIGGEST EDGE · LSU +17.0

The LSU pass defense vs Auburn's passing game

Auburn gains +0.05 EPA a play on the pass (98th); LSU allows −0.12 (1st). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseAuburn

AUB OFF

When Auburn has the ball

DefenseLSU

LSU DEF

+0.0855thEPA / play1st−0.18
42.5%59thSuccess rate1st33.8%
1.3059thExplosiveness53rd1.28
+0.1428thRush EPA / play5th−0.06
+0.0598thPass EPA / dropback1st−0.12
47.0%67thStandard downs SR1st39.7%
32.4%39thPassing downs SR10th27.9%
3.4829thLine yards2nd2.10
15.0%101stHavoc rate3rd20.8%
4.0385thPoints / opportunity10th2.91
71%35thRed zone TD rate8th44%

LSU's defense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (101st vs 3rd).

OffenseLSU

LSU OFF

When LSU has the ball

DefenseAuburn

AUB DEF

+0.1625thEPA / play32nd−0.01
48.5%11thSuccess rate49th41.0%
1.2792ndExplosiveness44th1.27
+0.0859thRush EPA / play67th+0.07
+0.2422ndPass EPA / dropback27th+0.03
51.9%17thStandard downs SR40th45.7%
35.9%8thPassing downs SR70th30.9%
3.2561stLine yards53rd2.96
13.5%68thHavoc rate55th15.0%
5.1018thPoints / opportunity58th3.88
70%43rdRed zone TD rate77th63%

LSU's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (8th vs 70th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, LSU and Auburn, season to date
Metric	LSULSU	AUBAUB	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	26.6	22.8	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	79.1	69.5	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	55.9%	52.8%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+6.4%	−0.1%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	53.4%	48.9%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	27%	23%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	32:14	27:47	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 31.9	Own 28.7	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

LSU

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −0.4% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Charles Ross II · LBCharles Ross IILB · SOSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Dashawn Spears · SDashawn SpearsS · JRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out for season
Phillip Wright III · WRPhillip Wright IIIWR · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Richard Anderson · DTRichard AndersonDT · FRReport trail: Doubtful, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Whit Weeks · LBWhit WeeksLB · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2

Auburn

SEC REPORT · FRI 8:10 PMNET −0.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Hunter Herring · TEHunter HerringTE · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Saint Farrior · DLSaint FarriorDL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Tai Buster · OLTai BusterOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

SUN 9:00PSpread −6.5 → −8 · 50% tickets AUBSpread −6.5 → −8 · 50% on AUBRLM
MON 3:00PSpread −8.5 → −7.5STEAM · 5 BOOKS
TUE 7:06PTotal 50 → 51
THU 2:29PSpread −8 → −7

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread LSUSTEAM · 5 BOOKSRLM	−6.5	−7	−9.6
TotalSTEAM · 6 BOOKS	50.5	51.5	46.4
Moneyline LSU	−255	−287	−257

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

LSU −7 · 50% / 71%AUB +7 · 50% / 29%

Over · 73% / 79%Under · 27% / 21%

DraftKings bettors, as of 7:15 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 21-pt gap on LSU suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ABC

Play-by-playSean McDonough

AnalystGreg McElroy

SidelineKatie George

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny: 66°
mph ENE · G18: 10
Precip: 0%
Surface: Grass

RefereeCrew TBA

RestLSU 7d · AUB 7d

Injury report

LSU

Auburn

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew