LSU
#18 · 5-2#18 · 5-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 3-4
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ABC
Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn
WIN PROB
72%
LSU
Auburn
4-24-2 · 2-2 SEC · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- LSU −7
- Open −6.5 · −115
- Total
- 51.5
- Open 50.5 · o −107
- Model line
- LSU −9.6+2.6
- Model total 46.4
- Win probability
- 72%
- Projected score
- 28.0 – 18.4
- LSU – AUB
- Projected plays
- 149
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- LSU −7
- open −6.5
- Model
- −9.6+2.6
- LSU
- Total
- 51.5
- model 46.4
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Auburn passvs LSU pass Dvs LSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 98th−0.06 | 1st−0.24 | 39 | LSU +17.0 |
PaceLSU 26.6 s · AUB 22.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays149 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 149 | O 5.4 |
| Auburn runvs LSU run Dvs LSU run D | 28th+0.07 | 5th−0.13 | 35 | LSU +3.0 |
  LSU passvs Auburn pass Dvs AUB pass D | 22nd+0.13 | 27th−0.09 | 37 | LSU +2.2 |
| LSU runvs Auburn run Dvs AUB run D | 59th+0.01 | 67th0.00 | 38 | LSU +0.6 |
BIGGEST EDGE · LSU +17.0
The LSU pass defense vs Auburn's passing game
Auburn gains +0.05 EPA a play on the pass (98th); LSU allows −0.12 (1st). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseAuburn
AUB OFFWhen Auburn has the ball
DefenseLSU
LSU DEF- +0.0855thEPA / play1st−0.18
- 42.5%59thSuccess rate1st33.8%
- 1.3059thExplosiveness53rd1.28
- +0.1428thRush EPA / play5th−0.06
- +0.0598thPass EPA / dropback1st−0.12
- 47.0%67thStandard downs SR1st39.7%
- 32.4%39thPassing downs SR10th27.9%
- 3.4829thLine yards2nd2.10
- 15.0%101stHavoc rate3rd20.8%
- 4.0385thPoints / opportunity10th2.91
- −0.01110thEarly-down EPA / play13th−0.13
- 45.4%33rd3rd-down conversion5th28.0%
- 12.6%28thStuff rate2nd28.9%
- 11.1%136thSack rate3rd10.3%
- 71%35thRed zone TD rate8th44%
LSU's defense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (136th vs 3rd).
OffenseLSU
LSU OFFWhen LSU has the ball
DefenseAuburn
AUB DEF- +0.1625thEPA / play32nd−0.01
- 48.5%11thSuccess rate49th41.0%
- 1.2792ndExplosiveness44th1.27
- +0.0859thRush EPA / play67th+0.07
- +0.2422ndPass EPA / dropback27th+0.03
- 51.9%17thStandard downs SR40th45.7%
- 35.9%8thPassing downs SR70th30.9%
- 3.2561stLine yards53rd2.96
- 13.5%68thHavoc rate55th15.0%
- 5.1018thPoints / opportunity58th3.88
- +0.1350thEarly-down EPA / play32nd−0.05
- 52.7%10th3rd-down conversion41st35.2%
- 15.9%75thStuff rate71st16.3%
- 4.9%65thSack rate47th6.3%
- 70%43rdRed zone TD rate77th63%
LSU's offense rates higher in 9 of 15. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (8th vs 70th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | LSULSU | AUBAUB | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.6 | 22.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 79.1 | 69.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.9% | 52.8% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +6.4% | −0.1% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 53.4% | 48.9% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 27% | 23% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 32:14 | 27:47 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 31.9 | Own 28.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%