San Diego State vs Colorado State

San Diego State

3-43-4 · 2-1 Pac-12 · ATS 2-5

6:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · CW

Canvas Stadium · Fort Collins

WIN PROB

51%

CSU

Colorado State

2-42-4 · 0-2 Pac-12 · ATS 3-3

Spread: SDSU −1.5; Open −3 · −110
Total: 59.5; Open 60.5 · o −110
Model line: CSU −0.3+1.8; Model total 55.5
Win probability: 51%
Projected score: 27.6 – 27.9; SDSU – CSU
Projected plays: 128; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: SDSU −1.5; open −3
Model: −0.3+1.8; CSU
Total: 59.5; model 55.5

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Colorado State passvs San Diego State pass Dvs SDSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	39th+0.06	86th+0.03	36	CSU +4.7
San Diego State runvs Colorado State run Dvs CSU run D	130th−0.12	138th+0.19	36	SDSU +3.6
San Diego State passvs Colorado State pass Dvs CSU pass D	134th−0.20	138th+0.24	28	SDSU +1.7
PaceSDSU 27.0 s · CSU 29.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays128 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	128	U 1.3
Colorado State runvs San Diego State run Dvs SDSU run D	43rd+0.04	63rd−0.01	28	CSU +1.2

BIGGEST EDGE · CSU +4.7

Colorado State's passing game vs the San Diego State pass defense

Colorado State gains +0.18 EPA a play on the pass (39th); San Diego State allows +0.14 (86th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseColorado State

CSU OFF

When Colorado State has the ball

DefenseSan Diego State

SDSU DEF

+0.1527thEPA / play72nd+0.07
42.2%65thSuccess rate119th46.4%
1.423rdExplosiveness1st1.15
+0.1143rdRush EPA / play63rd+0.06
+0.1839thPass EPA / dropback86th+0.14
45.3%98thStandard downs SR127th51.7%
34.0%23rdPassing downs SR103rd32.4%
2.97105thLine yards132nd3.64
12.3%42ndHavoc rate126th11.5%
5.585thPoints / opportunity95th4.34
88%4thRed zone TD rate85th63%

Colorado State's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (5th vs 95th).

OffenseSan Diego State

SDSU OFF

When San Diego State has the ball

DefenseColorado State

CSU DEF

−0.14136thEPA / play138th+0.32
35.6%133rdSuccess rate138th52.7%
1.2793rdExplosiveness101st1.33
−0.05130thRush EPA / play138th+0.26
−0.09134thPass EPA / dropback138th+0.36
41.8%133rdStandard downs SR138th55.9%
27.3%126thPassing downs SR133rd35.8%
2.95112thLine yards138th3.96
15.4%105thHavoc rate130th11.0%
3.62113thPoints / opportunity136th5.59
61%81stRed zone TD rate136th88%

San Diego State's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (81st vs 136th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, San Diego State and Colorado State, season to date
Metric	SDSUSDSU	CSUCSU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	27.0	29.9	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	60.0	68.3	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	39.6%	50.0%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−11.1%	+7.7%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	36.0%	48.5%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	22%	38%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	25:36	27:47	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.9	Own 30.6	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

San Diego State

PAC-12 REPORT · FRI 10:09 PMNET −2.0% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Brady Campbell · QBBrady CampbellQB · FRReport trail: not listed, not listed, not listed, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
DJ Overstreet · WRDJ OverstreetWRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
——
Out
Dalesean Staley · SDalesean StaleyS · SRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Jack Ellis · TEJack EllisTE · FRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Luke Williams · LSLuke WilliamsLS · SRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Doubtful
Malachi Finau · DLMalachi FinauDL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.3
Questionable
Jayden Denegal · QBJayden DenegalQB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Questionable
Joe Borjon · OLJoe BorjonOLReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
——
Questionable
Kalan Ellis · OLKalan EllisOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Questionable
Tano Letuli · LBTano LetuliLB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Ashdon Wnetrzak · OLAshdon WnetrzakOL · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Cameron Cooper · LBCameron CooperLB · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Dean Harrington · LBDean HarringtonLB · SOReport trail: Probable, Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Djibril Rahman · DLDjibril RahmanDL · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%−0.1
Probable
Isaac Lucas · OLIsaac LucasOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Jackson Ford · TEJackson FordTE · JRReport trail: Probable, Probable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Jacob Bostick · WRJacob BostickWR · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, Probable, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Javari Nash · LBJavari NashLB · FRReport trail: Probable, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Javion Kinnard · RBJavion KinnardRB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.6
Probable
Jeramiah Lewis · LBJeramiah LewisLB · SOReport trail: Probable, Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Josiah Cox · SJosiah CoxS · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Josiah Lucas · RBJosiah LucasRB · FRReport trail: Probable, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Kai Wallin · DLKai WallinDL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Kainoa Davis · DLKainoa DavisDL · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Lucky Sutton · RBLucky SuttonRB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Max Garrison · SMax GarrisonS · SRReport trail: Doubtful, Doubtful, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Mikey Watkins · OLMikey WatkinsOLReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
——
Probable
Nate Acevedo · WRNate AcevedoWRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
——
Probable
Nate Henrich · DLNate HenrichDL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Ryan Wolfer · TERyan WolferTE · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Sione Hala · LBSione HalaLB · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.1
Probable
Stone Saunders · QBStone SaundersQB · FRReport trail: Probable, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Tainoa Lave · STainoa LaveS · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0

Colorado State

PAC-12 REPORT · FRI 10:09 PMNET −0.8% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
AJ Noland · SAJ NolandS · JRReport trail: not listed, Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Brock Camp · TEBrock CampTE · SOReport trail: not listed, not listed, not listed, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Dagan Myers · SDagan MyersS · JRReport trail: not listed, Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Elijah McCantos · DBElijah McCantosDBReport trail: not listed, Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
——
Out
Jermaine Santana-Diaz · SJermaine Santana-DiazS · FRReport trail: not listed, not listed, not listed, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Doubtful
Pearce Spurlin III · TEPearce Spurlin IIITE · JRReport trail: not listed, Questionable, Doubtful, DoubtfulT-3 → T-1
25%−0.2
Questionable
RJ Vick · WRRJ VickWR · SRReport trail: not listed, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-3 → T-1
79%−0.3
Probable
Grant Houser · TEGrant HouserTE · SOReport trail: not listed, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Jayden Cortell · CBJayden CortellCB · SRReport trail: not listed, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Jayden Tuia · OLJayden TuiaOL · JRReport trail: not listed, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Marc Pretto · LBMarc PrettoLB · SRReport trail: not listed, not listed, Probable, ProbableT-3 → T-1
79%0.0
Probable
Payton Stewart · OLPayton StewartOL · JRReport trail: not listed, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%0.0
Probable
Phillip Ocon · OLPhillip OconOL · JRReport trail: not listed, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%−0.1
Probable
Zach Smith · OLZach SmithOL · JRReport trail: not listed, Probable, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
79%−0.1

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · P PROBABLE · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

FRI 4:25PTotal 62.5 → 61.5
FRI 10:45PSpread −2.5 → −1.5 · 50% tickets SDSUSpread −2.5 → −1.5 · 50% on SDSURLM
SAT 1:52ATotal 61.5 → 60.5
SAT 7:10ATotal 60.5 → 59.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread SDSUSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM	−3	−1.5	+0.3
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKS	60.5	59.5	55.5
Moneyline SDSU	−150	−115	+103

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

SDSU −1.5 · 50% / 5%CSU +1.5 · 50% / 95%

Over · 64% / 95%Under · 36% / 5%

DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 45-pt gap on CSU suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

CrewTBA

Also onESPN Unlimited

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Cloudy: 54°
mph E · G15: 9
Precip: 10%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestSDSU 7d · CSU 9d

Injury report

San Diego State

Colorado State

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew