- Spread
- SDSU −1.5
- Open −3 · −110
- Total
- 60
- Open 60.5 · o −107
- Model line
- CSU −0.3+1.8
- Model total 55.5
- Win probability
- 51%
- Projected score
- 27.6 – 27.9
- SDSU – CSU
- Projected plays
- 128
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- SDSU −1.5
- open −3
- Model
- −0.3+1.8
- CSU
- Total
- 60
- model 55.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Colorado State passvs San Diego State pass Dvs SDSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 39th+0.06 | 86th+0.03 | 36 | CSU +4.7 |
  San Diego State runvs Colorado State run Dvs CSU run D | 130th−0.12 | 138th+0.19 | 36 | SDSU +3.6 |
| San Diego State passvs Colorado State pass Dvs CSU pass D | 134th−0.20 | 138th+0.24 | 28 | SDSU +1.7 |
PaceSDSU 27.0 s · CSU 29.9 s a snap · avg 131 plays128 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 128 | U 1.3 |
| Colorado State runvs San Diego State run Dvs SDSU run D | 43rd+0.04 | 63rd−0.01 | 28 | CSU +1.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · CSU +4.7
Colorado State's passing game vs the San Diego State pass defense
Colorado State gains +0.18 EPA a play on the pass (39th); San Diego State allows +0.14 (86th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Colorado State has the ball
- +0.1527thEPA / play72nd+0.07
- 42.2%65thSuccess rate119th46.4%
- 1.423rdExplosiveness1st1.15
- +0.1143rdRush EPA / play63rd+0.06
- +0.1839thPass EPA / dropback86th+0.14
- 45.3%98thStandard downs SR127th51.7%
- 34.0%23rdPassing downs SR103rd32.4%
- 2.97105thLine yards132nd3.64
- 12.3%42ndHavoc rate126th11.5%
- 5.585thPoints / opportunity95th4.34
- +0.2025thEarly-down EPA / play121st+0.15
- 43.5%49th3rd-down conversion106th42.1%
- 17.5%95thStuff rate136th8.6%
- 1.7%9thSack rate38th6.9%
- 88%4thRed zone TD rate85th63%
Colorado State's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (25th vs 121st).
When San Diego State has the ball
- −0.14136thEPA / play138th+0.32
- 35.6%133rdSuccess rate138th52.7%
- 1.2793rdExplosiveness101st1.33
- −0.05130thRush EPA / play138th+0.26
- −0.09134thPass EPA / dropback138th+0.36
- 41.8%133rdStandard downs SR138th55.9%
- 27.3%126thPassing downs SR133rd35.8%
- 2.95112thLine yards138th3.96
- 15.4%105thHavoc rate130th11.0%
- 3.62113thPoints / opportunity136th5.59
- −0.18136thEarly-down EPA / play138th+0.41
- 32.5%123rd3rd-down conversion137th54.2%
- 21.7%129thStuff rate137th8.5%
- 4.6%55thSack rate122nd3.1%
- 61%81stRed zone TD rate136th88%
San Diego State's offense rates higher in 15 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (55th vs 122nd).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | SDSUSDSU | CSUCSU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.0 | 29.9 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 60.0 | 68.3 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 39.6% | 50.0% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −11.1% | +7.7% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 36.0% | 48.5% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 38% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 25:36 | 27:47 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.9 | Own 30.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%