Florida Atlantic vs North Texas

Florida Atlantic

4-24-2 · 1-1 American · ATS 4-2

7:30 PM ET

Thu, Oct 29 · ESPN

DATCU Stadium · Denton

WIN PROB

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North Texas

4-24-2 · 2-0 American · ATS 4-2

Spread: —
Total: —
Model line: —
Win probability: —
Projected score: —
Projected plays: —; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: —
Model: —
Total: —

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Florida Atlantic passvs North Texas pass Dvs UNT pass DBIGGEST EDGE	44th+0.05	129th+0.15	39	FAU +11.3
North Texas passvs Florida Atlantic pass Dvs FAU pass D	4th+0.24	48th−0.04	38	UNT +10.7
North Texas runvs Florida Atlantic run Dvs FAU run D	36th+0.05	136th+0.15	30	UNT +9.1
Florida Atlantic runvs North Texas run Dvs UNT run D	53rd+0.02	43rd−0.05	29	UNT +1.1

BIGGEST EDGE · FAU +11.3

Florida Atlantic's passing game vs the North Texas pass defense

Florida Atlantic gains +0.16 EPA a play on the pass (44th); North Texas allows +0.27 (129th). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNorth Texas

UNT OFF

When North Texas has the ball

DefenseFlorida Atlantic

FAU DEF

+0.256thEPA / play117th+0.16
46.7%19thSuccess rate70th42.2%
1.441stExplosiveness138th1.48
+0.1236thRush EPA / play136th+0.22
+0.354thPass EPA / dropback48th+0.07
52.5%13thStandard downs SR68th47.2%
32.2%41stPassing downs SR68th30.7%
3.2564thLine yards58th3.00
9.2%10thHavoc rate71st14.3%
4.9725thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
72%28thRed zone TD rate106th69%

North Texas's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (1st vs 138th).

OffenseFlorida Atlantic

FAU OFF

When Florida Atlantic has the ball

DefenseNorth Texas

UNT DEF

+0.1242ndEPA / play99th+0.12
44.8%37thSuccess rate105th45.0%
1.2972ndExplosiveness78th1.31
+0.0953rdRush EPA / play43rd+0.02
+0.1644thPass EPA / dropback129th+0.27
47.9%54thStandard downs SR101st49.6%
35.4%11thPassing downs SR87th31.5%
3.2073rdLine yards42nd2.88
11.9%38thHavoc rate99th13.0%
4.8338thPoints / opportunity128th5.04
71%35thRed zone TD rate127th78%

Florida Atlantic's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (35th vs 127th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Florida Atlantic and North Texas, season to date
Metric	FAUFAU	UNTUNT	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	25.9	24.8	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	74.8	72.5	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	65.7%	60.4%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+16.6%	+7.2%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	69.6%	58.3%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	48%	38%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	27:19	33:05	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 30.2	Own 31.3	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →