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THU 7:30 · ESPN · DENTON
Florida Atlantic
4-24-2 · 1-1 American · ATS 4-2
7:30 PM ET
Thu, Oct 29 · ESPN
DATCU Stadium · Denton
WIN PROB
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North Texas
4-24-2 · 2-0 American · ATS 4-2
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Total
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Model line
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Win probability
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Projected score
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Projected plays
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FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
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Model
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Total
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Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Florida Atlantic passvs North Texas pass Dvs UNT pass DBIGGEST EDGE
44th+0.05129th+0.1539FAU +11.3
North Texas passvs Florida Atlantic pass Dvs FAU pass D
4th+0.2448th−0.0438UNT +10.7
North Texas runvs Florida Atlantic run Dvs FAU run D
36th+0.05136th+0.1530UNT +9.1
Florida Atlantic runvs North Texas run Dvs UNT run D
53rd+0.0243rd−0.0529UNT +1.1

BIGGEST EDGE · FAU +11.3

Florida Atlantic's passing game vs the North Texas pass defense

Florida Atlantic gains +0.16 EPA a play on the pass (44th); North Texas allows +0.27 (129th). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNorth Texas
UNT OFF

When North Texas has the ball

DefenseFlorida Atlantic
FAU DEF
  • +0.256thEPA / play117th+0.16
  • 46.7%19thSuccess rate70th42.2%
  • 1.441stExplosiveness138th1.48
  • +0.1236thRush EPA / play136th+0.22
  • +0.354thPass EPA / dropback48th+0.07
  • 52.5%13thStandard downs SR68th47.2%
  • 32.2%41stPassing downs SR68th30.7%
  • 3.2564thLine yards58th3.00
  • 9.2%10thHavoc rate71st14.3%
  • 4.9725thPoints / opportunity64th4.00
  • +0.2710thEarly-down EPA / play123rd+0.15
  • 50.0%17th3rd-down conversion87th40.3%
  • 15.0%61stStuff rate54th17.7%
  • 1.1%5thSack rate108th4.2%
  • 72%28thRed zone TD rate106th69%

North Texas's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (1st vs 138th).

OffenseFlorida Atlantic
FAU OFF

When Florida Atlantic has the ball

DefenseNorth Texas
UNT DEF
  • +0.1242ndEPA / play99th+0.12
  • 44.8%37thSuccess rate105th45.0%
  • 1.2972ndExplosiveness78th1.31
  • +0.0953rdRush EPA / play43rd+0.02
  • +0.1644thPass EPA / dropback129th+0.27
  • 47.9%54thStandard downs SR101st49.6%
  • 35.4%11thPassing downs SR87th31.5%
  • 3.2073rdLine yards42nd2.88
  • 11.9%38thHavoc rate99th13.0%
  • 4.8338thPoints / opportunity128th5.04
  • +0.1445thEarly-down EPA / play116th+0.13
  • 56.1%5th3rd-down conversion61st37.5%
  • 11.5%21stStuff rate59th17.3%
  • 3.9%41stSack rate107th4.2%
  • 71%35thRed zone TD rate127th78%

Florida Atlantic's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (35th vs 127th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Florida Atlantic and North Texas, season to date
MetricFAUFAUUNTUNTFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral25.924.828.9
Plays per gamePlays per game74.872.565.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral65.7%60.4%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS+16.6%+7.2%−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral69.6%58.3%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations48%38%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession27:1933:0530:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.2Own 31.3Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%