UTSA
7-17-1 · 4-0 American · ATS 5-3
7:30 PM ET
Thu, Nov 5 · ESPN
FAU Stadium · Boca Raton
WIN PROB
62%
UTSA
Florida Atlantic
5-35-3 · 2-2 American · ATS 5-3
- Spread
- UTSA −6.5
- Open −7 · −118
- Total
- 72.5
- Open 72 · o −110
- Model line
- UTSA −5.2+1.3
- Model total 62.3
- Win probability
- 62%
- Projected score
- 33.8 – 28.5
- UTSA – FAU
- Projected plays
- 142
- FBS avg 132 · 28.8 s/play
- Spread
- UTSA −6.5
- open −7
- Model
- −5.2+1.3
- UTSA
- Total
- 72.5
- model 62.3
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  UTSA runvs Florida Atlantic run Dvs FAU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 20th+0.09 | 137th+0.21 | 36 | UTSA +15.3 |
  Florida Atlantic passvs UTSA pass Dvs UTSA pass D | 28th+0.12 | 103rd+0.07 | 41 | FAU +11.2 |
PaceUTSA 26.7 s · FAU 25.2 s a snap · avg 132 plays142 plays vs 132 avg | — | — | 142 | O 4.7 |
| UTSA passvs Florida Atlantic pass Dvs FAU pass D | 92nd−0.06 | 70th0.00 | 35 | FAU +2.9 |
| Florida Atlantic runvs UTSA run Dvs UTSA run D | 96th−0.03 | 68th0.00 | 30 | UTSA +1.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UTSA +15.3
UTSA's run game vs the Florida Atlantic run defense
UTSA gains +0.16 EPA a play on the run (20th); Florida Atlantic allows +0.28 (137th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseFlorida Atlantic
FAU OFFWhen Florida Atlantic has the ball
DefenseUTSA
UTSA DEF- +0.1334thEPA / play79th+0.07
- 44.8%37thSuccess rate53rd41.3%
- 1.3253rdExplosiveness95th1.33
- +0.0496thRush EPA / play68th+0.07
- +0.2228thPass EPA / dropback103rd+0.17
- 48.9%40thStandard downs SR47th46.1%
- 34.5%17thPassing downs SR85th31.3%
- 2.90118thLine yards66th3.11
- 12.4%44thHavoc rate113th12.4%
- 4.9124thPoints / opportunity75th4.08
- +0.0957thEarly-down EPA / play60th+0.02
- 55.1%5th3rd-down conversion89th40.7%
- 16.3%83rdStuff rate92nd15.0%
- 3.3%22ndSack rate125th3.3%
- 72%26thRed zone TD rate47th56%
Florida Atlantic's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: sack rate (22nd vs 125th).
OffenseUTSA
UTSA OFFWhen UTSA has the ball
DefenseFlorida Atlantic
FAU DEF- +0.0851stEPA / play132nd+0.21
- 44.3%39thSuccess rate88th43.4%
- 1.24114thExplosiveness138th1.49
- +0.1620thRush EPA / play137th+0.28
- +0.0492ndPass EPA / dropback70th+0.11
- 50.5%27thStandard downs SR75th47.9%
- 30.0%86thPassing downs SR99th31.9%
- 3.2562ndLine yards75th3.15
- 11.9%31stHavoc rate117th11.9%
- 4.4262ndPoints / opportunity77th4.11
- +0.1051stEarly-down EPA / play136th+0.26
- 44.2%38th3rd-down conversion111th43.7%
- 15.6%69thStuff rate65th16.9%
- 4.1%42ndSack rate123rd3.5%
- 60%85thRed zone TD rate125th74%
UTSA's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (20th vs 137th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | UTSAUTSA | FAUFAU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.7 | 25.2 | 28.8 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 65.8 | 76.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.9% | 61.7% | 48.2% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +4.9% | +12.4% | −1.8% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 55.7% | 63.0% | 44.8% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 46% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:18 | 27:28 | 30:05 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 32.5 | Own 30.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%