- Spread
- UTSA −6.5
- Open −7 · −117
- Total
- 72.5
- Open 72 · o −110
- Model line
- UTSA −5.2+1.3
- Model total 62.3
- Win probability
- 62%
- Projected score
- 33.8 – 28.5
- UTSA – FAU
- Projected plays
- 142
- FBS avg 132 · 28.8 s/play
- Spread
- UTSA −6.5
- open −7
- Model
- −5.2+1.3
- UTSA
- Total
- 72.5
- model 62.3
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  UTSA runvs Florida Atlantic run Dvs FAU run DBIGGEST EDGE | 20th+0.09 | 137th+0.21 | 36 | UTSA +15.3 |
  Florida Atlantic passvs UTSA pass Dvs UTSA pass D | 28th+0.12 | 103rd+0.07 | 41 | FAU +11.2 |
PaceUTSA 26.7 s · FAU 25.2 s a snap · avg 132 plays142 plays vs 132 avg | — | — | 142 | O 4.7 |
| UTSA passvs Florida Atlantic pass Dvs FAU pass D | 92nd−0.06 | 70th0.00 | 35 | FAU +2.9 |
| Florida Atlantic runvs UTSA run Dvs UTSA run D | 96th−0.03 | 68th0.00 | 30 | UTSA +1.3 |
BIGGEST EDGE · UTSA +15.3
UTSA's run game vs the Florida Atlantic run defense
UTSA gains +0.16 EPA a play on the run (20th); Florida Atlantic allows +0.28 (137th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Florida Atlantic has the ball
- +0.1334thEPA / play79th+0.07
- 44.8%37thSuccess rate53rd41.3%
- 1.3253rdExplosiveness95th1.33
- +0.0496thRush EPA / play68th+0.07
- +0.2228thPass EPA / dropback103rd+0.17
- 48.9%40thStandard downs SR47th46.1%
- 34.5%17thPassing downs SR85th31.3%
- 2.90118thLine yards66th3.11
- 12.4%44thHavoc rate113th12.4%
- 4.9124thPoints / opportunity75th4.08
- 72%26thRed zone TD rate47th56%
Florida Atlantic's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: pass EPA (28th vs 103rd).
When UTSA has the ball
- +0.0851stEPA / play132nd+0.21
- 44.3%39thSuccess rate88th43.4%
- 1.24114thExplosiveness138th1.49
- +0.1620thRush EPA / play137th+0.28
- +0.0492ndPass EPA / dropback70th+0.11
- 50.5%27thStandard downs SR75th47.9%
- 30.0%86thPassing downs SR99th31.9%
- 3.2562ndLine yards75th3.15
- 11.9%31stHavoc rate117th11.9%
- 4.4262ndPoints / opportunity77th4.11
- 60%85thRed zone TD rate125th74%
UTSA's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (20th vs 137th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | UTSAUTSA | FAUFAU | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.7 | 25.2 | 28.8 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 65.8 | 76.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 55.9% | 61.7% | 48.2% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +4.9% | +12.4% | −1.8% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 55.7% | 63.0% | 44.8% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 22% | 46% | 26% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:18 | 27:28 | 30:05 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 32.5 | Own 30.0 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
AMERICAN AVAILABILITY · DUE ~THU · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 8 game-day report3 OUT FOR SEASON · 6 OUT
- Out for seasonChris Bryson II · LB
- Out for seasonJohnny Bowens III · DL
- Out for seasonBryson Donnell · RB
- OutLawrence Brown Jr. · CB
- OutMarcellus Wilkerson · S
- OutMykha Green · RB
- OutJamarri Vinson · LB
- OutSekope Wallace · OL
- OutCorey Walls · DL
Week 9 game-day report9 OUT · 4 QUESTIONABLE
- OutRJ Garcia II · WR
- OutBrooks Johnson · TE
- OutJustin Weatherall · DB
- OutOwen Cheatham · OL
- OutJa'Kavion Nonar · OL
- OutLandon Rapkiewicz · OL
- OutPeter Cannon · TE
- OutMarcus Vinson · TE
- OutLebron Edmond · DL
- QuestionableAJ Johnson · TE
- QuestionableKelby Valsin · WR
- QuestionableRain Banick · OL
- QuestionableVincent Fiacable · OL
Line movement
- SUN 4:00PTotal 72 → 73.5STEAM · 4 BOOKS
- SUN 4:17PTotal 72 → 73
- MON 12:07ATotal 73 → 72
- TUE 10:46ATotal 72 → 73
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread UTSA | −7 | −6.5 | −5.2 |
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKS | 72.0 | 72.5 | 62.3 |
Moneyline UTSA | −245 | −256 | −167 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
DraftKings bettors, as of Sun 1:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle.
Broadcast
ESPNConditions & crew
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