4-5 · 2-4 ACC · ATS 4-4-1

Florida State

4-5

7:00 PM ET

Fri, Nov 13 · ESPN

Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh

6-3 · 3-3 ACC · ATS 5-4

Pittsburgh

6-3

Spread: PITT −3.5; Open −3.5 · −107
Total: 52.5; Open 54 · o −108
Model line: PITT −4.1; Model total 55.1
Win probability: 60%
Projected score: 25.5–29.6; FSU – PITT
Projected plays: 136; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: PITT −3.5; open −3.5
Model: −4.1; PITT
Total: 52.5; model 55.1
Win probability: 60%; PITT

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Florida State run vs Pittsburgh run Dvs PITT run DBiggest edge	36th+0.05	6th−0.13	36	PITT +4.2
Florida State pass vs Pittsburgh pass Dvs PITT pass D	40th+0.07	73rd+0.01	32	FSU +3.6
Pace FSU 29.0 s · PITT 26.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays136 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	136	O 1.8
Pittsburgh pass vs Florida State pass Dvs FSU pass D	86th−0.04	103rd+0.07	33	PITT +1.3
Pittsburgh run vs Florida State run Dvs FSU run D	62nd0.00	79th+0.03	35	PITT +1.3

BIGGEST EDGE · PITT +4.2

The Pittsburgh run defense vs Florida State's run game

Florida State gains +0.13 EPA a play on the run (36th); Pittsburgh allows −0.06 (6th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffensePittsburgh

PITT OFF

When Pittsburgh has the ball

DefenseFlorida State

FSU DEF

+0.0375thEPA / play105th+0.13
41.3%77thSuccess rate81st43.3%
1.2890thExplosiveness100th1.34
+0.0862ndRush EPA / play79th+0.10
+0.0686thPass EPA / dropback103rd+0.17
46.9%71stStandard downs SR97th49.2%
30.6%69thPassing downs SR84th31.2%
3.3542ndLine yards117th3.38
12.3%40thHavoc rate99th12.9%
4.1975thPoints / opportunity70th4.08
63%69thRed zone TD rate95th67%

Pittsburgh's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (42nd vs 117th).

OffenseFlorida State

FSU OFF

When Florida State has the ball

DefensePittsburgh

PITT DEF

+0.1626thEPA / play29th−0.04
44.4%38thSuccess rate9th35.9%
1.3720thExplosiveness136th1.43
+0.1336thRush EPA / play6th−0.06
+0.1740thPass EPA / dropback73rd+0.11
46.4%78thStandard downs SR6th40.7%
35.9%8thPassing downs SR47th29.6%
3.4528thLine yards4th2.51
11.8%26thHavoc rate33rd16.1%
4.8129thPoints / opportunity47th3.79
74%19thRed zone TD rate116th71%

Florida State's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (20th vs 136th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	FSUFSU	PITTPITT	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	29.0	26.3	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	64.2	71.4	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	44.7%	47.3%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−4.8%	−4.3%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	38.5%	45.8%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	29%	28%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	28:16	31:14	30:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.9	Own 31.0	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%