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FRI 7:00 · ESPN · PITTSBURGH
4-5 · 2-4 ACC · ATS 4-4-1

Florida State

4-5
7:00 PM ET

Fri, Nov 13 · ESPN

Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh

6-3 · 3-3 ACC · ATS 5-4

Pittsburgh

6-3
Spread
PITT −3.5
Open −3.5 · −107
Total
52.5
Open 54 · o −108
Model line
PITT −4.1
Model total 55.1
Win probability
60%
Projected score
25.5–29.6
FSU – PITT
Projected plays
136
FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
Spread
PITT −3.5
open −3.5
Model
−4.1
PITT
Total
52.5
model 55.1
Win probability
60%
PITT

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Florida State run
Biggest edge
36th+0.056th−0.1336PITT +4.2
Florida State pass
40th+0.0773rd+0.0132FSU +3.6
Pace
FSU 29.0 s · PITT 26.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays136 plays vs 131 avg
——136O 1.8
Pittsburgh pass
86th−0.04103rd+0.0733PITT +1.3
Pittsburgh run
62nd0.0079th+0.0335PITT +1.3

BIGGEST EDGE · PITT +4.2

The Pittsburgh run defense vs Florida State's run game

Florida State gains +0.13 EPA a play on the run (36th); Pittsburgh allows −0.06 (6th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffensePittsburgh
PITT OFF

When Pittsburgh has the ball

DefenseFlorida State
FSU DEF
  • +0.0375thEPA / play105th+0.13
  • 41.3%77thSuccess rate81st43.3%
  • 1.2890thExplosiveness100th1.34
  • +0.0862ndRush EPA / play79th+0.10
  • +0.0686thPass EPA / dropback103rd+0.17
  • 46.9%71stStandard downs SR97th49.2%
  • 30.6%69thPassing downs SR84th31.2%
  • 3.3542ndLine yards117th3.38
  • 12.3%40thHavoc rate99th12.9%
  • 4.1975thPoints / opportunity70th4.08
  • 63%69thRed zone TD rate95th67%

Pittsburgh's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (42nd vs 117th).

OffenseFlorida State
FSU OFF

When Florida State has the ball

DefensePittsburgh
PITT DEF
  • +0.1626thEPA / play29th−0.04
  • 44.4%38thSuccess rate9th35.9%
  • 1.3720thExplosiveness136th1.43
  • +0.1336thRush EPA / play6th−0.06
  • +0.1740thPass EPA / dropback73rd+0.11
  • 46.4%78thStandard downs SR6th40.7%
  • 35.9%8thPassing downs SR47th29.6%
  • 3.4528thLine yards4th2.51
  • 11.8%26thHavoc rate33rd16.1%
  • 4.8129thPoints / opportunity47th3.79
  • 74%19thRed zone TD rate116th71%

Florida State's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (20th vs 136th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
MetricFSUFSUPITTPITTFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral29.026.328.7
Plays per gamePlays per game64.271.465.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral44.7%47.3%48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−4.8%−4.3%−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral38.5%45.8%44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations29%28%26%
Time of possessionTime of possession28:1631:1430:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 28.9Own 31.0Own 29.7
Neutral = WP 20–80%All tempo

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · THU 8:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Florida State

% TO PLAYIMPACT

Pittsburgh

% TO PLAYIMPACT