6-3 · 3-3 Big Ten · ATS 5-4

Northwestern

6-3

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · FOX

Ohio Stadium · Columbus

#21 · 6-3 · 4-2 Big Ten · ATS 5-4

Ohio State

#21 · 6-3

Spread: OSU −14; Open −10.5 · −110
Total: 44.5; Open 47.5 · o −109
Model line: OSU −12.2; Model total 58.3+1.8
Win probability: 77%
Projected score: 23.1–35.2; NU – OSU
Projected plays: 134; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: OSU −14; open −10.5
Model: −12.2; OSU+1.8
Total: 44.5; model 58.3
Win probability: 77%; OSU

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Ohio State run vs Northwestern run Dvs NU run DBiggest edge	24th+0.08	113th+0.07	32	OSU +7.4
Ohio State pass vs Northwestern pass Dvs NU pass D	10th+0.19	38th−0.06	34	OSU +6.1
Northwestern run vs Ohio State run Dvs OSU run D	7th+0.12	31st−0.07	36	NU +2.9
Northwestern pass vs Ohio State pass Dvs OSU pass D	19th+0.13	23rd−0.10	31	NU +1.7
Pace NU 31.5 s · OSU 31.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays134 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	134	O 1.0

BIGGEST EDGE · OSU +7.4

Ohio State's run game vs the Northwestern run defense

Ohio State gains +0.16 EPA a play on the run (24th); Northwestern allows +0.15 (113th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseOhio State

OSU OFF

When Ohio State has the ball

DefenseNorthwestern

NU DEF

+0.2212thEPA / play55th+0.03
48.9%9thSuccess rate97th43.9%
1.3629thExplosiveness35th1.25
+0.1624thRush EPA / play113th+0.15
+0.2810thPass EPA / dropback38th+0.04
52.8%14thStandard downs SR95th49.0%
34.0%22ndPassing downs SR83rd31.1%
3.4135thLine yards111th3.33
12.6%49thHavoc rate50th14.9%
4.6738thPoints / opportunity18th3.36
66%53rdRed zone TD rate10th42%

Ohio State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (24th vs 113th).

OffenseNorthwestern

NU OFF

When Northwestern has the ball

DefenseOhio State

OSU DEF

+0.239thEPA / play21st−0.06
48.7%11thSuccess rate12th36.5%
1.3250thExplosiveness103rd1.34
+0.207thRush EPA / play31st+0.01
+0.2319thPass EPA / dropback23rd0.00
52.7%15thStandard downs SR4th40.4%
34.6%16thPassing downs SR78th31.0%
3.3245thLine yards12th2.68
14.4%84thHavoc rate36th15.9%
4.7534thPoints / opportunity43rd3.74
71%26thRed zone TD rate37th55%

Northwestern's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (16th vs 78th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	NUNU	OSUOSU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	31.5	31.0	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	63.9	69.8	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	43.2%	48.0%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−5.4%	−1.9%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	37.5%	43.5%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	19%	34%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	32:02	32:41	30:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 28.2	Own 29.6	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%