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SAT 12:00 · FOX · COLUMBUS
6-3 · 3-3 Big Ten · ATS 5-4

Northwestern

6-3
12:00 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · FOX

Ohio Stadium · Columbus

#21 · 6-3 · 4-2 Big Ten · ATS 5-4

Ohio State

#21 · 6-3
Spread
OSU −14
Open −10.5 · −110
Total
44.5
Open 47.5 · o −109
Model line
OSU −12.2
Model total 58.3+1.8
Win probability
77%
Projected score
23.1–35.2
NU – OSU
Projected plays
134
FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
Spread
OSU −14
open −10.5
Model
−12.2
OSU+1.8
Total
44.5
model 58.3
Win probability
77%
OSU

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Ohio State run
Biggest edge
24th+0.08113th+0.0732OSU +7.4
Ohio State pass
10th+0.1938th−0.0634OSU +6.1
Northwestern run
7th+0.1231st−0.0736NU +2.9
Northwestern pass
19th+0.1323rd−0.1031NU +1.7
Pace
NU 31.5 s · OSU 31.0 s a snap · avg 131 plays134 plays vs 131 avg
——134O 1.0

BIGGEST EDGE · OSU +7.4

Ohio State's run game vs the Northwestern run defense

Ohio State gains +0.16 EPA a play on the run (24th); Northwestern allows +0.15 (113th). About 32 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseOhio State
OSU OFF

When Ohio State has the ball

DefenseNorthwestern
NU DEF
  • +0.2212thEPA / play55th+0.03
  • 48.9%9thSuccess rate97th43.9%
  • 1.3629thExplosiveness35th1.25
  • +0.1624thRush EPA / play113th+0.15
  • +0.2810thPass EPA / dropback38th+0.04
  • 52.8%14thStandard downs SR95th49.0%
  • 34.0%22ndPassing downs SR83rd31.1%
  • 3.4135thLine yards111th3.33
  • 12.6%49thHavoc rate50th14.9%
  • 4.6738thPoints / opportunity18th3.36
  • 66%53rdRed zone TD rate10th42%

Ohio State's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (24th vs 113th).

OffenseNorthwestern
NU OFF

When Northwestern has the ball

DefenseOhio State
OSU DEF
  • +0.239thEPA / play21st−0.06
  • 48.7%11thSuccess rate12th36.5%
  • 1.3250thExplosiveness103rd1.34
  • +0.207thRush EPA / play31st+0.01
  • +0.2319thPass EPA / dropback23rd0.00
  • 52.7%15thStandard downs SR4th40.4%
  • 34.6%16thPassing downs SR78th31.0%
  • 3.3245thLine yards12th2.68
  • 14.4%84thHavoc rate36th15.9%
  • 4.7534thPoints / opportunity43rd3.74
  • 71%26thRed zone TD rate37th55%

Northwestern's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (16th vs 78th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
MetricNUNUOSUOSUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral31.531.028.7
Plays per gamePlays per game63.969.865.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral43.2%48.0%48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−5.4%−1.9%−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral37.5%43.5%44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations19%34%26%
Time of possessionTime of possession32:0232:4130:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 28.2Own 29.6Own 29.7
Neutral = WP 20–80%All tempo

Injury report

BIG TEN AVAILABILITY · THU 8:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Northwestern

% TO PLAYIMPACT

Ohio State

% TO PLAYIMPACT