MAC · 4-3 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4
Buffalo Bulls
HC Pete Lembo (2nd yr) · OC Tony Tokarz · DC Brian Dougherty
STARTS IN 01 PERSONNEL (3 OF 7) · BASE D 4-3-4 · SHOTGUN 98%
MAC · 4-3 · 2-1 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4
Buffalo
Bulls · HC Pete Lembo (2nd yr) · starts in 01 (3 of 7) · base D 4-3-4
Buffalo
4-3 · 2-1 MAC
3 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 8% · title 2%
Latest from the beat
BUFFALO · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   UAlbanyUAlbany | W21–17 | −18.5−18.5 | L | +0.07 | 40% | 29% | 62% | 77 | 7.5 | |
| 2 |   at Florida Internationalat Florida International | L20–33 | +9+9 | L | −0.10 | 25% | 39% | 36% | 69 | 18.4 | |
| 3 |   at Penn Stateat Penn State | L13–55 | +40+40 | L | −0.89 | 11% | 44% | 1% | 63 | 15.8 | |
| 4 |  Robert MorrisRobert Morris | W31–28 | −28−28 | L | 0.00 | 44% | 30% | 56% | 90 | 27.1 | |
| 5 |   Western MichiganWestern Michigan | L17–20 | +13.5+13.5 | W | −0.11 | 43% | 48% | 38% | 65 | 24.3 | |
| 6 |   at Toledoat Toledo | W23–8 | +18.5+18.5 | W | +0.14 | 34% | 34% | 89% | 76 | 25.3 | |
| 7 |   MassachusettsMassachusetts | W25–18 | −6.5−6.5 | W | −0.12 | 38% | 42% | 64% | 79 | 23.9 | |
| 8 |   Bowling GreenBowling GreenNEXT | SAT 3:30 ESPN+SAT 3:30 | −3−3 | — | — | — | — | 61% | 131 | — | |
| 9 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 10 |   at Miami (OH)at Miami (OH) | NOV 3NOV 3 | +10.2 proj+10.2 | 27% | |||||||
| 11 |   at Ball Stateat Ball State | NOV 11NOV 11 | +0.6 proj+0.6 | 49% | |||||||
| 12 |   Central MichiganCentral Michigan | NOV 18NOV 18 | −1.3 proj−1.3 | 53% | |||||||
| 13 |   at Akronat Akron | NOV 27NOV 27 | −3 proj−3 | 57% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 490 OF 494 PLAYS490 OF 494 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun98% | 98% | 47% | −0.10 | 35% |
| Under center2% | 2% | 50% | +0.15 | 50% |
| No-huddle93% | 93% | 46% | −0.08 | 36% |
| Huddle7% | 7% | 59% | −0.20 | 21% |
In shotgun on 98 % of tagged snaps, passing 47 % of the time (−0.10 EPA a play; +0.15 under center). No-huddle on 93 %. Starts in 01 personnel in 3 of 7 games. Base defense 4-3-4 (5 of 6).
Next game
SAT 3:30 ESPN+ · UB STADIUMSAT 3:30 ESPN+
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAC crews−0.4 to +0.5 · 45 games | 0.0 | −0.4 to +0.5 | 45 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 4 games | −0.3 | — | 4 | NOISE |
| ACC crews— · 2 games | +0.6 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| American crews— · 2 games | −0.4 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 2 games | +0.5 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| C-USA crews— · 1 game | −2.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 1 game | −1.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Buffalo than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Buffalo than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | BuffaloBUFF | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | −0.11 | 131st | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 34.3% | 136th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.23 | 116th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | 0.00 | 115th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | −0.07 | 133rd | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 24.9% | 138th | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.11 | 92nd | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 5.1% | 78th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 38% | 94th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 3.94 | 92nd | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 52% | 116th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 24.1 | 9th | 28.0 |