- Spread
- BUFF −3
- Open −4.5 · −110
- Total
- 44.5
- Open 44 · o −110
- Model line
- BUFF −4.6+1.6
- Model total 46.5
- Win probability
- 61%
- Projected score
- 21.0 – 25.6
- BGSU – BUFF
- Projected plays
- 131
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- BUFF −3
- open −4.5
- Model
- −4.6+1.6
- BUFF
- Total
- 44.5
- model 46.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Buffalo passvs Bowling Green pass Dvs BGSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 132nd−0.19 | 80th+0.02 | 31 | BGSU +7.6 |
  Bowling Green runvs Buffalo run Dvs BUFF run D | 137th−0.16 | 73rd+0.01 | 34 | BUFF +7.5 |
| Buffalo runvs Bowling Green run Dvs BGSU run D | 114th−0.07 | 134th+0.14 | 35 | BUFF +3.2 |
| Bowling Green passvs Buffalo pass Dvs BUFF pass D | 102nd−0.08 | 92nd+0.04 | 32 | BUFF +1.6 |
PaceBGSU 33.2 s · BUFF 24.3 s a snap · avg 131 plays131 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 131 | U 0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · BGSU +7.6
The Bowling Green pass defense vs Buffalo's passing game
Buffalo gains −0.07 EPA a play on the pass (132nd); Bowling Green allows +0.13 (80th). About 31 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Buffalo has the ball
- −0.11131stEPA / play113th+0.14
- 34.4%137thSuccess rate135th49.0%
- 1.23116thExplosiveness25th1.24
- 0.00114thRush EPA / play134th+0.20
- −0.07132ndPass EPA / dropback80th+0.13
- 41.1%134thStandard downs SR136th53.6%
- 25.0%137thPassing downs SR98th32.3%
- 3.1192ndLine yards128th3.51
- 13.2%61stHavoc rate98th13.0%
- 3.9492ndPoints / opportunity81st4.16
- 52%116thRed zone TD rate61st59%
Bowling Green's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (116th vs 25th).
When Bowling Green has the ball
- −0.10130thEPA / play91st+0.11
- 38.6%115thSuccess rate79th42.9%
- 1.19135thExplosiveness69th1.30
- −0.09137thRush EPA / play73rd+0.08
- +0.04102ndPass EPA / dropback92nd+0.15
- 45.2%100thStandard downs SR110th50.1%
- 27.5%121stPassing downs SR6th27.5%
- 2.63132ndLine yards67th3.11
- 15.8%115thHavoc rate70th14.4%
- 3.11128thPoints / opportunity33rd3.49
- 57%97thRed zone TD rate94th67%
Buffalo's defense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: passing-downs success rate (121st vs 6th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | BGSUBGSU | BUFFBUFF | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 33.2 | 24.3 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 57.0 | 74.1 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 44.8% | 44.1% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −6.2% | −7.8% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 39.9% | 39.6% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 16% | 17% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:11 | 31:54 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.0 | Own 30.1 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
MAC AVAILABILITY · DUE ~SAT · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 7 game-day report7 OUT FOR SEASON · 9 OUT · 2 QUESTIONABLE
- Out for seasonJoJo Johnson · CB
- Out for seasonAustin Clay · WR
- Out for seasonRico Garcia · CB
- Out for seasonJabari Mitchell · LB
- Out for seasonEthan Kraatz · T
- Out for seasonPete Pendergest · OL
- Out for seasonTrent Taylor · TE
- OutPreston EstoEsta · S
- OutNick Sowell · WR
- OutJulian Holt · DB
- OutTristin Blackmon · RB
- OutMJ Dillard · OL
- OutAJ Odom · LB
- OutQuentin Lewis · EDGE
- OutJonathan Goins · LB
- OutDayln White · DT
- QuestionableTrey Johnson · WR
- QuestionableJames Thomas Jr. · G
Week 7 game-day report21 OUT
- OutRonnell Davis · S
- OutRamari Taylor · CB
- OutAlvin Jones III · WR
- OutJamiere Munson · S
- OutBobby Mays · WR
- OutJoey Cheshire · LB
- OutTyrell Simmons Jr. · WR
- OutElijah Holmes · QB
- OutJeremiah Watkins · WR
- OutGeorge Hill · LB
- OutTerrance Shelton Jr. · RB
- OutNa'Rod Jarvis · LB
- OutZae Jennings · S
- OutJacari Bennett · EDGE
- OutXair Stevenson · S
- OutZach Bergmann · LB
- OutVal Kondratenko · OL
- OutMike Whalen · OL
- OutJackson Davenport · OL
- OutJoe Crocker · OL
- OutCharlton Goodell · DT
Line movement
- SUN 4:17PTotal 43.5 → 44.5
- MON 11:00ASpread −4.5 → −3.5STEAM · 4 BOOKS
- MON 11:14ASpread −4.5 → −3.5
- SAT 2:15ASpread −4.5 → −3 · 72% tickets BUFFSpread −4.5 → −3 · 72% on BUFFRLM
Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread BUFFSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM | −4.5 | −3 | −4.6 |
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKS | 44.0 | 44.5 | 46.5 |
Moneyline BUFF | −185 | −158 | −156 |
Bet splits
DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK
DraftKings bettors, as of 3:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 15-pt gap on BGSU suggests larger, sharper bets.
Broadcast
ESPN+Crew as reported, not official.
Conditions & crew
KICKOFF FORECAST
- Sunny
- 62°
- mph SSW
- 1
- Precip
- 0%
- Surface
- Turf