C-USA · 2-5 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4
Missouri State Bears
HC Casey Woods (1st yr) · OC Mark Cala · DC Jack Curtis
STARTS IN 12 PERSONNEL (4 OF 7) · BASE D 3-2-6 · SHOTGUN 99%
C-USA · 2-5 · 1-2 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4
Missouri State
Bears · HC Casey Woods (1st yr) · starts in 12 (4 of 7) · base D 3-2-6
Missouri State
2-5 · 1-2 C-USA
5 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 1% · title 0%
Latest from the beat
MISSOURI STATE · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H
All coverage →No verified updates in the last 72 hours.
Schedule & resultsSchedule
POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED
Wk | Opponent | Result | Line | ATS | Net EPA | Off SR | Def SR | Win prob | Plays | s/play | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |   at Texas A&Mat Texas A&M | L0–50 | +39.5+39.5 | L | −0.94 | 17% | 53% | 0% | 40 | 25.8 | |
| 2 |   LindenwoodLindenwood | W48–14 | −17−17 | W | +1.27 | 49% | 21% | 98% | 75 | 27.8 | |
| 3 |   MarshallMarshall | L24–30 | +4+4 | L | +0.14 | 55% | 52% | 35% | 65 | 24.2 | |
| 4 |   at SMUat SMU | L24–34 | +30.5+30.5 | W | −0.24 | 31% | 54% | 29% | 62 | 24.7 | |
| 5 | BYE | ||||||||||
| 6 |   at Western Kentuckyat Western Kentucky | L13–34 | −2−2 | L | −0.28 | 37% | 44% | 10% | 67 | 25.9 | |
| 7 |   Kennesaw StateKennesaw State | W24–21 | +2.5+2.5 | W | +0.05 | 42% | 42% | 56% | 71 | 27.6 | |
| 8 |   at Delawareat Delaware | L38–61 | +3+3 | L | −0.27 | 57% | 52% | 9% | 58 | 25.4 | |
| 9 |   Sam HoustonSam HoustonNEXT | TUE 8:00 ESPN2TUE 8:00 | −6.5−6.5 | — | — | — | — | 56% | — | — | |
| 10 |   at Florida Internationalat Florida International | NOV 7NOV 7 | +7.4 proj+7.4 | 33% | |||||||
| 11 |   New Mexico StateNew Mexico State | NOV 14NOV 14 | −1.2 proj−1.2 | 53% | |||||||
| 12 |   at Jacksonville Stateat Jacksonville State | NOV 21NOV 21 | +8.8 proj+8.8 | 30% | |||||||
| 13 |   LibertyLiberty | NOV 28NOV 28 | +13 proj+13 | 22% |
Success rate by down & distance
Formation & personnelFormation
PBP TAGS · 378 OF 379 PLAYS378 OF 379 PLAYS TAGGED
LookLook · usage | Usage | Pass %Pass | EPA/playEPA | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shotgun99% | 99% | 56% | +0.10 | 42% |
| Under center1% | 1% | 0% | −0.22 | 67% |
| No-huddle82% | 82% | 55% | +0.14 | 44% |
| Huddle18% | 18% | 58% | −0.10 | 36% |
In shotgun on 99 % of tagged snaps, passing 56 % of the time (+0.10 EPA a play; −0.22 under center). No-huddle on 82 %. Starts in 12 personnel in 4 of 7 games. Base defense 3-2-6 (4 of 7).
Next game
TUE 8:00 ESPN2 · PLASTER SPORTS COMPLEXTUE 8:00 ESPN2
Refs
JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026
Crews from | FOE / G | 90% range | Games | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C-USA crews−0.6 to +0.5 · 13 games | 0.0 | −0.6 to +0.5 | 13 | NOISE |
| Mountain West crews— · 2 games | +2.0 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| SEC crews— · 2 games | −1.5 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Sun Belt crews— · 2 games | −0.6 | — | 2 | NOISE |
| Big 12 crews— · 1 game | −0.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| Big Ten crews— · 1 game | −0.7 | — | 1 | NOISE |
| MAC crews— · 1 game | −0.9 | — | 1 | NOISE |
+ = more judgment flags on Missouri State than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Missouri State than expected · no lean before 8 games
Key players
Unit statsEfficiency
OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED
MetricStat | Missouri StateMOST | RankRK | FBS avgVS FBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA / play | +0.04 | 79th | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 41.6% | 74th | 42.3% |
| Explosiveness | 1.28 | 78th | 1.30 |
| Rush EPA / play | +0.07 | 69th | +0.07 |
| Pass EPA / play | +0.12 | 68th | +0.11 |
| Passing downs SR | 30.0% | 91st | 31.1% |
| Line yards | 3.39 | 42nd | 3.21 |
| Sack rate allowed | 4.8% | 60th | 5.3% |
| 3rd-down conversion | 39% | 84th | 41% |
| Points / opportunity | 4.16 | 77th | 4.27 |
| Red zone TD rate | 55% | 104th | 63% |
| Seconds / play | 25.2 | 21st | 28.0 |