- Spread
- MOST −6.5
- Open −6.5 · −102
- Total
- 51.5
- Open 49.5 · o −110
- Model line
- —
- Win probability
- —
- Projected score
- —
- Projected plays
- —
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- MOST −6.5
- open −6.5
- Model
- —
- Total
- 51.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Missouri State passvs Sam Houston pass Dvs SHSU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 68th0.00 | 11th−0.15 | 38 | SHSU +8.1 |
  Sam Houston runvs Missouri State run Dvs MOST run D | 135th−0.15 | 103rd+0.05 | 26 | MOST +3.5 |
| Missouri State runvs Sam Houston run Dvs SHSU run D | 70th0.00 | 89th+0.03 | 30 | MOST +1.6 |
| Sam Houston passvs Missouri State pass Dvs MOST pass D | 123rd−0.14 | 126th+0.13 | 42 | MOST +0.2 |
BIGGEST EDGE · SHSU +8.1
The Sam Houston pass defense vs Missouri State's passing game
Missouri State gains +0.12 EPA a play on the pass (68th); Sam Houston allows −0.03 (11th). About 38 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
When Missouri State has the ball
- +0.0479thEPA / play47th+0.02
- 41.5%74thSuccess rate72nd42.4%
- 1.2877thExplosiveness17th1.22
- +0.0770thRush EPA / play89th+0.10
- +0.1268thPass EPA / dropback11th−0.03
- 47.0%69thStandard downs SR78th48.1%
- 30.0%91stPassing downs SR43rd29.7%
- 3.3942ndLine yards103rd3.32
- 12.7%50thHavoc rate24th17.1%
- 4.1677thPoints / opportunity80th4.15
- 55%104thRed zone TD rate94th67%
Sam Houston's defense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (42nd vs 103rd).
When Sam Houston has the ball
- −0.10128thEPA / play121st+0.18
- 38.7%114thSuccess rate131st47.5%
- 1.2884thExplosiveness55th1.29
- −0.08135thRush EPA / play103rd+0.12
- −0.02123rdPass EPA / dropback126th+0.25
- 44.6%112thStandard downs SR129th51.8%
- 29.0%110thPassing downs SR113th33.2%
- 2.49135thLine yards91st3.22
- 19.7%137thHavoc rate85th13.5%
- 3.30123rdPoints / opportunity120th4.77
- 64%70thRed zone TD rate88th65%
Missouri State's defense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: havoc rate (137th vs 85th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | SHSUSHSU | MOSTMOST | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 27.7 | 25.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.6 | 62.6 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 60.2% | 56.7% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | +6.0% | +7.0% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 57.7% | 52.0% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 14% | 34% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:28 | 26:59 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 28.4 | Own 26.6 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%
All tempo →Injury report
CUSA AVAILABILITY · DUE ~TUE · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)
Week 8 game-day report3 OUT FOR SEASON · 5 OUT
- Out for seasonBrock Stukes · OL
- Out for seasonBrock Kuhl · TE
- Out for seasonCaius Coy · EDGE
- OutRyan Mallory · LB
- OutRay Chatham · LB
- OutCarter Kadow · OL
- OutJack Merryman · TE
- OutMax Whisner · TE
Week 8 game-day report6 OUT · 2 QUESTIONABLE
- OutJambres Dubar · RB
- OutElijah Leonard · QB
- OutJosh Joyner · RB
- OutHieko Malone · LB
- OutMalachi Madison · DL
- OutJames Rexroat · TE
- QuestionableKellen Lindstrom · EDGE
- QuestionableMekhi Miller · WR
Line movement
- THU 3:15PTotal 49.5 → 50.5
- THU 3:24PTotal 50.5 → 51.5
| Market · consensusMarket | Open | Now | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Spread MOST | −6.5 | −6.5 | — |
Total | 49.5 | 51.5 | — |
Moneyline MOST | −265 | −220 | — |
Broadcast
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