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2026 · THROUGH WK 8

C-USA · 1-6 · 0-3 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4

Sam Houston Bearkats

HC Phil Longo (2nd yr) · OC Zack Patterson · DC Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay

STARTS IN 11 PERSONNEL (7 OF 7) · BASE D 4-2-5 · SHOTGUN 99%

Power rating−8.9119th
CFP odds0%—
PLAYOFFNEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins3.1of 12
Fan pulse—1 of 30 scored

C-USA · 1-6 · 0-3 CONF · ATS 3-4 · O/U 3-4

Sam Houston

Bearkats · HC Phil Longo (2nd yr) · starts in 11 (7 of 7) · base D 4-2-5

Power rating−8.9119th
CFP odds · outlook0%—NEEDS TITLE→OUT
Proj. wins3.1of 12
Fan pulse—1 of 30 scored

Sam Houston

1-6 · 0-3 C-USA

POWER RATING−8.9119th in FBS
CFP ODDS0%no change
PROJ. WINS3.1of 12 games
PLAYOFF OUTLOOKNEEDS TITLE→OUT

6 losses now · CFP 0% in sims · CCG 0% · title 0%

FAN PULSE—1 of 30 scored

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SAM HOUSTON · LAST 72 HLAST 72 H

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Schedule & resultsSchedule

POSTGAME WE = HOW OFTEN THIS BOX SCORE WINS · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PREGAME WPCLOSING LINES · FUTURE ROWS SHOW PROJECTED LINEFUTURE LINES PROJECTED

Sam Houston schedule and results
Wk
Opponent
Result
Line
ATS
Net EPA
Off SR
Def SR
Win prob
Plays
s/play
1at Troyat TroyL21–24+16+16W−0.0747%34%44%7026.8
2TulsaTulsaL17–23+12+12W0.0044%33%35%6328.4
3NichollsNichollsW59–0−21−21W+1.3957%26%100%7230.8
4at Texas Techat Texas TechL14–49+34.5+34.5L−0.3336%65%4%6630.6
5BYE
6at Libertyat LibertyL3–35+13.5+13.5L−0.7232%63%0%5929.9
7Western KentuckyWestern KentuckyL3–16+1.5+1.5L−0.2625%27%19%5728.0
8New Mexico StateNew Mexico StateL24–30+3+3L−0.2325%39%37%5140.0
9at Missouri Stateat Missouri StateNEXTTUE 8:00 ESPN2TUE 8:00+6.5+6.5————44%——
10at Jacksonville Stateat Jacksonville StateNOV 7NOV 7+8.8 proj+8.830%
11Kennesaw StateKennesaw StateNOV 14NOV 14−2.5 proj−2.556%
12Middle TennesseeMiddle TennesseeNOV 21NOV 21−1.7 proj−1.754%
13at Florida Internationalat Florida InternationalNOV 28NOV 28+7.5 proj+7.532%

Success rate by down & distance

1st100%n 233%n 343%n 14825%n 8
2nd50%n 1650%n 2434%n 6428%n 18
3rd46%n 2442%n 1929%n 219%n 22
4th0%n 20%n 20%n 20%n 1

Formation & personnelFormation

PBP TAGS · 374 OF 376 PLAYS374 OF 376 PLAYS TAGGED

Formation splits
LookLook · usage
Usage
Pass %Pass
EPA/playEPA
SR
Shotgun99%99%62%−0.1538%
Under center1%1%50%+3.1850%
No-huddle77%77%62%−0.1540%
Huddle23%23%60%−0.0731%
StartersSTARTERS
117 of 7 gamesBASE D4-2-56 of 7
117 of 74-2-5base D · 6 of 7

In shotgun on 99 % of tagged snaps, passing 62 % of the time (−0.15 EPA a play; +3.18 under center). No-huddle on 77 %. Starts in 11 personnel in 7 of 7 games. Base defense 4-2-5 (6 of 7).

Next game

TUE 8:00 ESPN2 · PLASTER SPORTS COMPLEXTUE 8:00 ESPN2

at Missouri StateLINE+6.5MODEL+2.6WP44%

Refs

JUDGMENT FLAGS OVER EXPECTED · 2026FLAGS OVER EXPECTED / G · 2026

Judgment flags over expected by crew conference
Crews from
FOE / G
90% range
Games
Read
C-USA crews−0.6 to +0.4 · 31 games−0.1−0.6 to +0.431NOISE
Big 12 crews— · 4 games+0.4—4NOISE
American crews— · 2 games+0.2—2NOISE
SEC crews— · 2 games−0.5—2NOISE
MAC crews— · 1 game+0.5—1NOISE
Mountain West crews— · 1 game+4.8—1NOISE
Pac-12 crews— · 1 game+0.5—1NOISE
FRIENDLIEST CREWFRIENDLIESTRodney Burnette−1.6 / g · 4 games · noise−1.6 / g · 4 g · noise
TOUGHEST CREWTOUGHESTDouglas Mercer+1.1 / g · 5 games · noise+1.1 / g · 5 g · noise

+ = more judgment flags on Sam Houston than expected · 2026 only: crews known for 7 of 8 games · no lean before 8 gamesJudgment flags only, 2026 · crews known for 7 of 8 games · + = more on Sam Houston than expected · no lean before 8 games

Key players

Unit statsEfficiency

OPP-ADJUSTED · RANK OF 138 FBSFBS RANK · OPP-ADJUSTED

Sam Houston offense statistics
MetricStat
Sam HoustonSHSU
RankRK
FBS avgVS FBS
EPA / play−0.10128th+0.06
Success rate38.6%117th42.3%
Explosiveness1.2881st1.30
Rush EPA / play−0.08136th+0.07
Pass EPA / play−0.02123rd+0.11
Passing downs SR29.0%109th31.1%
Line yards2.49135th3.21
Sack rate allowed6.4%99th5.3%
3rd-down conversion34%114th41%
Points / opportunity3.30122nd4.27
Red zone TD rate64%70th63%
Seconds / play28.173rd28.0