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SAT 12:00 · ESPN · MIAMI GARDENS
Pittsburgh
5-25-2 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 4-3
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens
WIN PROB
84%
MIA
Miami
#1 · 6-0#1 · 6-0 · 4-0 ACC · ATS 4-2
Spread
MIA −20
Open −23 · −110
Total
48.5
Open 51.5 · o −110
Model line
MIA −16.2+3.8
Model total 54.5
Win probability
84%
Projected score
19.2 – 35.3
PITT – MIA
Projected plays
139
FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
Spread
MIA −20
open −23
Model
−16.2+3.8
MIA
Total
48.5
model 54.5

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Miami passvs Pittsburgh pass Dvs PITT pass DBIGGEST EDGE
3rd+0.2669th0.0036MIA +13.3
Pittsburgh runvs Miami run Dvs MIA run D
64th+0.011st−0.1534MIA +7.2
PacePITT 26.6 s · MIA 38.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays139 plays vs 131 avg
——139O 3.0
Miami runvs Pittsburgh run Dvs PITT run D
30th+0.076th−0.1234PITT +2.7
Pittsburgh passvs Miami pass Dvs MIA pass D
62nd+0.0165th−0.0136MIA +0.1

BIGGEST EDGE · MIA +13.3

Miami's passing game vs the Pittsburgh pass defense

Miami gains +0.37 EPA a play on the pass (3rd); Pittsburgh allows +0.11 (69th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseMiami
MIA OFF

When Miami has the ball

DefensePittsburgh
PITT DEF
  • +0.291stEPA / play35th−0.01
  • 50.1%5thSuccess rate17th37.8%
  • 1.3247thExplosiveness129th1.39
  • +0.1430thRush EPA / play6th−0.05
  • +0.373rdPass EPA / dropback69th+0.11
  • 54.7%2ndStandard downs SR24th43.7%
  • 33.2%27thPassing downs SR18th28.6%
  • 3.861stLine yards3rd2.36
  • 7.0%3rdHavoc rate43rd15.5%
  • 5.664thPoints / opportunity22nd3.23
  • 88%5thRed zone TD rate68th61%

Miami's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: explosiveness (47th vs 129th).

OffensePittsburgh
PITT OFF

When Pittsburgh has the ball

DefenseMiami
MIA DEF
  • +0.0952ndEPA / play25th−0.04
  • 42.3%62ndSuccess rate25th38.6%
  • 1.3061stExplosiveness100th1.33
  • +0.0864thRush EPA / play1st−0.08
  • +0.1262ndPass EPA / dropback65th+0.11
  • 47.6%57thStandard downs SR23rd43.6%
  • 31.3%62ndPassing downs SR56th30.3%
  • 3.3350thLine yards7th2.51
  • 12.5%49thHavoc rate92nd13.3%
  • 4.0386thPoints / opportunity50th3.71
  • 64%70thRed zone TD rate7th42%

Miami's defense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (64th vs 1st).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Pittsburgh and Miami, season to date
MetricPITTPITTMIAMIAFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral26.638.828.9
Plays per gamePlays per game70.768.565.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral47.9%28.6%47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−3.2%−14.0%−2.0%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral45.9%27.3%44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations29%24%27%
Time of possessionTime of possession31:5233:5830:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 29.9Own 29.1Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · FRI 8:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT) · REPORTED = GRADED BEAT WRITER

Pittsburgh

ACC REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −9.5% TO PLAYIMPACT

Miami

ACC REPORT · FRI 8:00 PMNET −1.3% TO PLAYIMPACT

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

REPORTED = VERIFIED BEAT-WRITER POST, CONFIRMED BY A TARGETED X CHECK · OFFICIAL STAYS THE STATUS OF RECORD

Line movement

  • MON 10:14ASpread −21.5 → −20.5
  • MON 8:00PTotal 53.5 → 51 · 90% tickets overTotal 53.5 → 51 · 90% on overRLM
  • WED 7:09PTotal 51 → 49.5
  • THU 5:29PTotal 49.5 → 48.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarketOpenNowModel
Spread MIARLM
−23−20−16.2
TotalSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM
51.548.554.5
Moneyline MIA
−2500−1700−511

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

PITT +20 · 25% / 18%MIA −20 · 75% / 82%
Over · 90% / 56%Under · 10% / 44%

DraftKings bettors, as of 5:00 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 34-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN
CrewTBA
Also onDisney+, ESPN · Disney+

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Mostly Sunny
81°
mph NNE · G22
14
Precip
5%
Surface
Turf
RefereeCrew TBA
RestPITT 7d · MIA 7d