Pittsburgh
5-25-2 · 2-2 ACC · ATS 4-3
12:00 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens
WIN PROB
84%
MIA
Miami
#1 · 6-0#1 · 6-0 · 4-0 ACC · ATS 4-2
- Spread
- MIA −20
- Open −23 · −110
- Total
- 48.5
- Open 51.5 · o −110
- Model line
- MIA −16.2+3.8
- Model total 54.5
- Win probability
- 84%
- Projected score
- 19.2 – 35.3
- PITT – MIA
- Projected plays
- 139
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- MIA −20
- open −23
- Model
- −16.2+3.8
- MIA
- Total
- 48.5
- model 54.5
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Miami passvs Pittsburgh pass Dvs PITT pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 3rd+0.26 | 69th0.00 | 36 | MIA +13.3 |
  Pittsburgh runvs Miami run Dvs MIA run D | 64th+0.01 | 1st−0.15 | 34 | MIA +7.2 |
PacePITT 26.6 s · MIA 38.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays139 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 139 | O 3.0 |
| Miami runvs Pittsburgh run Dvs PITT run D | 30th+0.07 | 6th−0.12 | 34 | PITT +2.7 |
| Pittsburgh passvs Miami pass Dvs MIA pass D | 62nd+0.01 | 65th−0.01 | 36 | MIA +0.1 |
BIGGEST EDGE · MIA +13.3
Miami's passing game vs the Pittsburgh pass defense
Miami gains +0.37 EPA a play on the pass (3rd); Pittsburgh allows +0.11 (69th). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseMiami
MIA OFFWhen Miami has the ball
DefensePittsburgh
PITT DEF- +0.291stEPA / play35th−0.01
- 50.1%5thSuccess rate17th37.8%
- 1.3247thExplosiveness129th1.39
- +0.1430thRush EPA / play6th−0.05
- +0.373rdPass EPA / dropback69th+0.11
- 54.7%2ndStandard downs SR24th43.7%
- 33.2%27thPassing downs SR18th28.6%
- 3.861stLine yards3rd2.36
- 7.0%3rdHavoc rate43rd15.5%
- 5.664thPoints / opportunity22nd3.23
- +0.421stEarly-down EPA / play26th−0.09
- 52.0%11th3rd-down conversion42nd35.4%
- 7.8%1stStuff rate9th24.4%
- 3.1%29thSack rate77th5.2%
- 88%5thRed zone TD rate68th61%
Miami's offense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: explosiveness (47th vs 129th).
OffensePittsburgh
PITT OFFWhen Pittsburgh has the ball
DefenseMiami
MIA DEF- +0.0952ndEPA / play25th−0.04
- 42.3%62ndSuccess rate25th38.6%
- 1.3061stExplosiveness100th1.33
- +0.0864thRush EPA / play1st−0.08
- +0.1262ndPass EPA / dropback65th+0.11
- 47.6%57thStandard downs SR23rd43.6%
- 31.3%62ndPassing downs SR56th30.3%
- 3.3350thLine yards7th2.51
- 12.5%49thHavoc rate92nd13.3%
- 4.0386thPoints / opportunity50th3.71
- +0.0872ndEarly-down EPA / play45th−0.01
- 44.6%38th3rd-down conversion35th34.4%
- 13.5%40thStuff rate28th20.0%
- 3.6%41stSack rate16th7.8%
- 64%70thRed zone TD rate7th42%
Miami's defense rates higher in 12 of 15. Widest gap: rush EPA (64th vs 1st).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | PITTPITT | MIAMIA | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 26.6 | 38.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 70.7 | 68.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 47.9% | 28.6% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −3.2% | −14.0% | −2.0% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 45.9% | 27.3% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 29% | 24% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 31:52 | 33:58 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 29.9 | Own 29.1 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%