Iowa State vs Arizona

Iowa State

3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 2-3-1

7:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN2

Arizona Stadium · Tucson

WIN PROB

74%

ARIZ

Arizona

#25 · 5-1#25 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big 12 · ATS 2-4

Spread: ARIZ −10.5; Open −10.5 · −109
Total: 51; Open 50.5 · o −110
Model line: ARIZ −10.8; Model total 53.1
Win probability: 74%
Projected score: 21.1 – 31.9; ISU – ARIZ
Projected plays: 128; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: ARIZ −10.5; open −10.5
Model: −10.8; ARIZ
Total: 51; model 53.1

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Arizona passvs Iowa State pass Dvs ISU pass DBIGGEST EDGE	17th+0.13	70th+0.01	36	ARIZ +7.2
Iowa State runvs Arizona run Dvs ARIZ run D	83rd−0.02	31st−0.06	35	ARIZ +4.1
Iowa State passvs Arizona pass Dvs ARIZ pass D	91st−0.05	50th−0.04	29	ARIZ +3.6
PaceISU 31.4 s · ARIZ 29.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays128 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	128	U 1.6
Arizona runvs Iowa State run Dvs ISU run D	66th+0.01	75th+0.01	28	ARIZ +0.7

BIGGEST EDGE · ARIZ +7.2

Arizona's passing game vs the Iowa State pass defense

Arizona gains +0.25 EPA a play on the pass (17th); Iowa State allows +0.12 (70th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseArizona

ARIZ OFF

When Arizona has the ball

DefenseIowa State

ISU DEF

+0.1722ndEPA / play64th+0.04
46.8%18thSuccess rate63rd41.8%
1.3153rdExplosiveness106th1.34
+0.0866thRush EPA / play75th+0.08
+0.2517thPass EPA / dropback70th+0.12
49.8%35thStandard downs SR79th48.1%
36.4%6thPassing downs SR22nd28.8%
3.3645thLine yards92nd3.23
13.5%69thHavoc rate114th12.2%
4.9727thPoints / opportunity41st3.64
75%14thRed zone TD rate77th63%

Arizona's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: red-zone TD rate (14th vs 77th).

OffenseIowa State

ISU OFF

When Iowa State has the ball

DefenseArizona

ARIZ DEF

+0.0474thEPA / play29th−0.02
39.4%102ndSuccess rate27th38.7%
1.3245thExplosiveness118th1.36
+0.0583rdRush EPA / play31st+0.01
+0.0691stPass EPA / dropback50th+0.08
44.7%110thStandard downs SR12th42.7%
29.4%100thPassing downs SR89th31.8%
2.97106thLine yards41st2.87
18.6%134thHavoc rate76th14.1%
5.0022ndPoints / opportunity18th3.16
73%23rdRed zone TD rate46th53%

Arizona's defense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (110th vs 12th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Iowa State and Arizona, season to date
Metric	ISUISU	ARIZARIZ	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	31.4	29.8	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	62.0	65.5	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	37.4%	59.3%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−13.4%	+8.6%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	34.1%	55.0%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	23%	18%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	30:37	31:41	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 27.6	Own 28.7	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Iowa State

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −0.9% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Beni Ngoyi · CBBeni NgoyiCB · JRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Caden Crawford · EDGECaden CrawfordEDGE · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.2
Out
Dominic Overby · WRDominic OverbyWR · SOReport trail: Out, not listed, not listedT-3 → T-1· OFF LATEST
0%−0.5
Out
Donovan Fitzmaurice · DTDonovan FitzmauriceDT · SOReport trail: Questionable, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ka'Mori Moore · DTKa'Mori MooreDT · FRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Trey Verdon · EDGETrey VerdonEDGE · FRReport trail: Questionable, Doubtful, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1

Arizona

BIG 12 REPORT · FRI 10:00 PMNET −2.0% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Chris Hunter III · WRChris Hunter IIIWR · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%0.0
Out
Cole Rusk · TECole RuskTE · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.3
Out
Dajon Hinton · SDajon HintonS · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Ezra Funa · DLEzra FunaDL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Giovanni Richardson · WRGiovanni RichardsonWR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−1.5
Out
Keona Peat · OLKeona PeatOL · SRReport trail: Out, Out, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Out
Swayde Griffin · CBSwayde GriffinCB · SOReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, OutT-3 → T-1
0%−0.1
Available
Lee Molette III · SLee Molette IIIS · SRReport trail: Probable, Probable, AvailableT-3 → T-1
100%0.0

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

SUN 6:00PTotal 50.5 → 51.5STEAM · 5 BOOKS
SUN 6:12PTotal 50 → 51.5
SUN 7:07PSpread −11.5 → −10
MON 11:19PTotal 51.5 → 50.5

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread ARIZ	−10.5	−10.5	−10.8
TotalSTEAM · 5 BOOKS	50.5	51.0	53.1
Moneyline ARIZ	−384	−357	−290

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

ISU +10.5 · 45% / 35%ARIZ −10.5 · 55% / 65%

Over · 83% / 100%Under · 17% / 0%

DraftKings bettors, as of 5:45 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 17-pt gap on the over suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

ESPN2

Play-by-playLowell Galindo

Crew as reported, not official.

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Sunny: 77°
mph W · G17: 9
Precip: 0%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestISU 15d · ARIZ 14dBOTH OFF BYE

Injury report

Iowa State

Arizona

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew