Iowa State
3-33-3 · 1-2 Big 12 · ATS 2-3-1
7:30 PM ET
Sat, Oct 24 · ESPN2
Arizona Stadium · Tucson
WIN PROB
74%
ARIZ
Arizona
#25 · 5-1#25 · 5-1 · 2-1 Big 12 · ATS 2-4
- Spread
- ARIZ −10.5
- Open −10.5 · −109
- Total
- 51
- Open 50.5 · o −110
- Model line
- ARIZ −10.8
- Model total 53.1
- Win probability
- 74%
- Projected score
- 21.1 – 31.9
- ISU – ARIZ
- Projected plays
- 128
- FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play
- Spread
- ARIZ −10.5
- open −10.5
- Model
- −10.8
- ARIZ
- Total
- 51
- model 53.1
Where the model sees the game
EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED
| Unit vs defense | Offense gainsOff | Defense allowsDef | Plays | Model impactImpact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
  Arizona passvs Iowa State pass Dvs ISU pass DBIGGEST EDGE | 17th+0.13 | 70th+0.01 | 36 | ARIZ +7.2 |
  Iowa State runvs Arizona run Dvs ARIZ run D | 83rd−0.02 | 31st−0.06 | 35 | ARIZ +4.1 |
| Iowa State passvs Arizona pass Dvs ARIZ pass D | 91st−0.05 | 50th−0.04 | 29 | ARIZ +3.6 |
PaceISU 31.4 s · ARIZ 29.8 s a snap · avg 131 plays128 plays vs 131 avg | — | — | 128 | U 1.6 |
| Arizona runvs Iowa State run Dvs ISU run D | 66th+0.01 | 75th+0.01 | 28 | ARIZ +0.7 |
BIGGEST EDGE · ARIZ +7.2
Arizona's passing game vs the Iowa State pass defense
Arizona gains +0.25 EPA a play on the pass (17th); Iowa State allows +0.12 (70th). About 36 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.
OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.
OffenseArizona
ARIZ OFFWhen Arizona has the ball
DefenseIowa State
ISU DEF- +0.1722ndEPA / play64th+0.04
- 46.8%18thSuccess rate63rd41.8%
- 1.3153rdExplosiveness106th1.34
- +0.0866thRush EPA / play75th+0.08
- +0.2517thPass EPA / dropback70th+0.12
- 49.8%35thStandard downs SR79th48.1%
- 36.4%6thPassing downs SR22nd28.8%
- 3.3645thLine yards92nd3.23
- 13.5%69thHavoc rate114th12.2%
- 4.9727thPoints / opportunity41st3.64
- +0.2220thEarly-down EPA / play105th+0.10
- 54.1%7th3rd-down conversion27th32.8%
- 16.2%79thStuff rate97th14.6%
- 7.6%113thSack rate95th4.7%
- 75%14thRed zone TD rate77th63%
Arizona's offense rates higher in 14 of 15. Widest gap: early-down EPA (20th vs 105th).
OffenseIowa State
ISU OFFWhen Iowa State has the ball
DefenseArizona
ARIZ DEF- +0.0474thEPA / play29th−0.02
- 39.4%102ndSuccess rate27th38.7%
- 1.3245thExplosiveness118th1.36
- +0.0583rdRush EPA / play31st+0.01
- +0.0691stPass EPA / dropback50th+0.08
- 44.7%110thStandard downs SR12th42.7%
- 29.4%100thPassing downs SR89th31.8%
- 2.97106thLine yards41st2.87
- 18.6%134thHavoc rate76th14.1%
- 5.0022ndPoints / opportunity18th3.16
- +0.1155thEarly-down EPA / play17th−0.12
- 31.3%129th3rd-down conversion98th41.3%
- 22.1%131stStuff rate28th20.0%
- 4.6%55thSack rate39th6.9%
- 73%23rdRed zone TD rate46th53%
Arizona's defense rates higher in 13 of 15. Widest gap: stuff rate (131st vs 28th).
Tempo & tendencies
SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE
| Metric | ISUISU | ARIZARIZ | FBS avgFBS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral | 31.4 | 29.8 | 28.9 |
| Plays per gamePlays per game | 62.0 | 65.5 | 65.7 |
| Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral | 37.4% | 59.3% | 47.9% |
| Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS | −13.4% | +8.6% | −1.9% |
| Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral | 34.1% | 55.0% | 44.6% |
| 4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations | 23% | 18% | 27% |
| Time of possessionTime of possession | 30:37 | 31:41 | 30:11 |
| Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position | Own 27.6 | Own 28.7 | Own 29.8 |
Neutral = WP 20–80%