#11 · 8-1 · 5-1 ACC · ATS 7-2

Wake Forest

#11 · 8-1

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · ESPN

Gerald J. Ford Stadium · University Park

#25 · 7-2 · 5-2 ACC · ATS 3-4-2

SMU

#25 · 7-2

Spread: SMU −1.5; Open +2.5 · −110
Total: 60.5; Open 61.5 · o −110
Model line: WAKE −4.1; Model total 56.9+5.6
Win probability: 60%
Projected score: 30.5–26.4; WAKE – SMU
Projected plays: 132; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: SMU −1.5; open +2.5
Model: −4.1; WAKE+5.6
Total: 60.5; model 56.9
Win probability: 60%; WAKE

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Wake Forest pass vs SMU pass Dvs SMU pass DBiggest edge	7th+0.21	41st−0.05	35	WAKE +8.1
SMU pass vs Wake Forest pass Dvs WAKE pass D	5th+0.23	25th−0.09	34	SMU +7.0
SMU run vs Wake Forest run Dvs WAKE run D	72nd−0.01	12th−0.11	32	WAKE +5.5
Wake Forest run vs SMU run Dvs SMU run D	28th+0.08	84th+0.03	31	WAKE +4.8
Pace WAKE 26.8 s · SMU 25.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays132 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	132	O 0.4

BIGGEST EDGE · WAKE +8.1

Wake Forest's passing game vs the SMU pass defense

Wake Forest gains +0.31 EPA a play on the pass (7th); SMU allows +0.05 (41st). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseSMU

SMU OFF

When SMU has the ball

DefenseWake Forest

WAKE DEF

+0.1916thEPA / play20th−0.06
48.6%12thSuccess rate25th38.5%
1.3065thExplosiveness4th1.18
+0.0672ndRush EPA / play12th−0.03
+0.335thPass EPA / dropback25th+0.01
52.3%17thStandard downs SR37th44.9%
35.3%11thPassing downs SR16th27.8%
3.04101stLine yards6th2.56
11.0%18thHavoc rate42nd15.5%
4.4459thPoints / opportunity20th3.38
71%29thRed zone TD rate30th53%

SMU's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (101st vs 6th).

OffenseWake Forest

WAKE OFF

When Wake Forest has the ball

DefenseSMU

SMU DEF

+0.255thEPA / play56th+0.03
48.4%13thSuccess rate42nd40.1%
1.3438thExplosiveness71st1.30
+0.1528thRush EPA / play84th+0.10
+0.317thPass EPA / dropback41st+0.05
51.4%23rdStandard downs SR54th46.6%
37.2%4thPassing downs SR21st28.3%
3.5714thLine yards42nd2.93
8.5%3rdHavoc rate73rd14.1%
5.1310thPoints / opportunity96th4.33
68%47thRed zone TD rate83rd65%

Wake Forest's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (10th vs 96th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	WAKEWAKE	SMUSMU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	26.8	25.7	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	64.7	67.6	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	45.5%	55.0%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−0.5%	+7.0%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	42.5%	49.2%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	26%	32%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	28:26	29:57	30:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 30.7	Own 32.4	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%