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SAT 12:00 · ESPN · UNIVERSITY PARK
#11 · 8-1 · 5-1 ACC · ATS 7-2

Wake Forest

#11 · 8-1
12:00 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · ESPN

Gerald J. Ford Stadium · University Park

#25 · 7-2 · 5-2 ACC · ATS 3-4-2

SMU

#25 · 7-2
Spread
SMU −1.5
Open +2.5 · −110
Total
60.5
Open 61.5 · o −110
Model line
WAKE −4.1
Model total 56.9+5.6
Win probability
60%
Projected score
30.5–26.4
WAKE – SMU
Projected plays
132
FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
Spread
SMU −1.5
open +2.5
Model
−4.1
WAKE+5.6
Total
60.5
model 56.9
Win probability
60%
WAKE

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Wake Forest pass
Biggest edge
7th+0.2141st−0.0535WAKE +8.1
SMU pass
5th+0.2325th−0.0934SMU +7.0
SMU run
72nd−0.0112th−0.1132WAKE +5.5
Wake Forest run
28th+0.0884th+0.0331WAKE +4.8
Pace
WAKE 26.8 s · SMU 25.7 s a snap · avg 131 plays132 plays vs 131 avg
——132O 0.4

BIGGEST EDGE · WAKE +8.1

Wake Forest's passing game vs the SMU pass defense

Wake Forest gains +0.31 EPA a play on the pass (7th); SMU allows +0.05 (41st). About 35 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseSMU
SMU OFF

When SMU has the ball

DefenseWake Forest
WAKE DEF
  • +0.1916thEPA / play20th−0.06
  • 48.6%12thSuccess rate25th38.5%
  • 1.3065thExplosiveness4th1.18
  • +0.0672ndRush EPA / play12th−0.03
  • +0.335thPass EPA / dropback25th+0.01
  • 52.3%17thStandard downs SR37th44.9%
  • 35.3%11thPassing downs SR16th27.8%
  • 3.04101stLine yards6th2.56
  • 11.0%18thHavoc rate42nd15.5%
  • 4.4459thPoints / opportunity20th3.38
  • 71%29thRed zone TD rate30th53%

SMU's offense rates higher in 7 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (101st vs 6th).

OffenseWake Forest
WAKE OFF

When Wake Forest has the ball

DefenseSMU
SMU DEF
  • +0.255thEPA / play56th+0.03
  • 48.4%13thSuccess rate42nd40.1%
  • 1.3438thExplosiveness71st1.30
  • +0.1528thRush EPA / play84th+0.10
  • +0.317thPass EPA / dropback41st+0.05
  • 51.4%23rdStandard downs SR54th46.6%
  • 37.2%4thPassing downs SR21st28.3%
  • 3.5714thLine yards42nd2.93
  • 8.5%3rdHavoc rate73rd14.1%
  • 5.1310thPoints / opportunity96th4.33
  • 68%47thRed zone TD rate83rd65%

Wake Forest's offense rates higher in 11 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (10th vs 96th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
MetricWAKEWAKESMUSMUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral26.825.728.7
Plays per gamePlays per game64.767.665.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral45.5%55.0%48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−0.5%+7.0%−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral42.5%49.2%44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations26%32%26%
Time of possessionTime of possession28:2629:5730:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.7Own 32.4Own 29.7
Neutral = WP 20–80%All tempo

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · THU 9:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Wake Forest

% TO PLAYIMPACT

SMU

% TO PLAYIMPACT