4-5 · 2-5 ACC · ATS 5-4

Syracuse

4-5

12:00 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · ACC Network

Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh

4-5 · 2-4 ACC · ATS 3-6

NC State

4-5

Spread: SYR −2.5; Open −2.5 · −119
Total: 53.5; Open 55.5 · o −110
Model line: NCSU −1.6; Model total 57.9+4.1
Win probability: 54%
Projected score: 28.2–29.8; SYR – NCSU
Projected plays: 145; FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play

Spread: SYR −2.5; open −2.5
Model: −1.6; NCSU+4.1
Total: 53.5; model 57.9
Win probability: 54%; NCSU

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Pace SYR 25.4 s · NCSU 31.2 s a snap · avg 131 plays145 plays vs 131 avgBiggest edge	—	—	145	O 5.6
Syracuse run vs NC State run Dvs NCSU run D	71st−0.01	122nd+0.09	35	SYR +4.3
Syracuse pass vs NC State pass Dvs NCSU pass D	67th0.00	109th+0.08	38	SYR +4.2
NC State pass vs Syracuse pass Dvs SYR pass D	28th+0.12	39th−0.06	37	NCSU +3.0
NC State run vs Syracuse run Dvs SYR run D	98th−0.03	104th+0.06	36	NCSU +1.1

BIGGEST EDGE · O 5.6

The pace fight

NCSU snaps every 31.2 s, SYR every 25.4 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.0 points. The model projects 145 plays against a 131 average. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNC State

NCSU OFF

When NC State has the ball

DefenseSyracuse

SYR DEF

+0.0951stEPA / play64th+0.05
43.2%47thSuccess rate64th41.7%
1.3250thExplosiveness68th1.29
+0.0498thRush EPA / play104th+0.13
+0.2128thPass EPA / dropback39th+0.04
47.5%59thStandard downs SR84th48.5%
33.0%32ndPassing downs SR27th28.6%
2.99104thLine yards64th3.09
12.5%46thHavoc rate28th16.6%
5.1211thPoints / opportunity68th4.06
69%39thRed zone TD rate70th61%

NC State's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (11th vs 68th).

OffenseSyracuse

SYR OFF

When Syracuse has the ball

DefenseNC State

NCSU DEF

+0.0764thEPA / play106th+0.13
42.8%54thSuccess rate104th44.6%
1.3065thExplosiveness83rd1.32
+0.0771stRush EPA / play122nd+0.17
+0.1067thPass EPA / dropback109th+0.18
47.9%51stStandard downs SR99th49.3%
30.0%79thPassing downs SR89th31.5%
2.98106thLine yards109th3.32
14.2%79thHavoc rate100th12.9%
3.75102ndPoints / opportunity110th4.54
50%124thRed zone TD rate118th71%

Syracuse's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (71st vs 122nd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
Metric	SYRSYR	NCSUNCSU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	25.4	31.2	28.7
Plays per gamePlays per game	78.3	67.0	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	50.2%	51.2%	48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	−1.1%	+3.7%	−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	46.5%	46.5%	44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	35%	23%	26%
Time of possessionTime of possession	32:22	31:06	30:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 30.9	Own 27.2	Own 29.7

Neutral = WP 20–80%