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SAT 12:00 · ACC NETWORK · RALEIGH
4-5 · 2-5 ACC · ATS 5-4

Syracuse

4-5
12:00 PM ET

Sat, Nov 14 · ACC Network

Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh

4-5 · 2-4 ACC · ATS 3-6

NC State

4-5
Spread
SYR −2.5
Open −2.5 · −119
Total
53.5
Open 55.5 · o −110
Model line
NCSU −1.6
Model total 57.9+4.1
Win probability
54%
Projected score
28.2–29.8
SYR – NCSU
Projected plays
145
FBS avg 131 · 28.7 s/play
Spread
SYR −2.5
open −2.5
Model
−1.6
NCSU+4.1
Total
53.5
model 57.9
Win probability
54%
NCSU

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defenseOffense gainsOffDefense allowsDefPlaysModel impactImpact
Pace
SYR 25.4 s · NCSU 31.2 s a snap · avg 131 plays145 plays vs 131 avgBiggest edge
——145O 5.6
Syracuse run
71st−0.01122nd+0.0935SYR +4.3
Syracuse pass
67th0.00109th+0.0838SYR +4.2
NC State pass
28th+0.1239th−0.0637NCSU +3.0
NC State run
98th−0.03104th+0.0636NCSU +1.1

BIGGEST EDGE · O 5.6

The pace fight

NCSU snaps every 31.2 s, SYR every 25.4 s in neutral situations. Each extra 10 plays moves the total about 4.0 points. The model projects 145 plays against a 131 average. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNC State
NCSU OFF

When NC State has the ball

DefenseSyracuse
SYR DEF
  • +0.0951stEPA / play64th+0.05
  • 43.2%47thSuccess rate64th41.7%
  • 1.3250thExplosiveness68th1.29
  • +0.0498thRush EPA / play104th+0.13
  • +0.2128thPass EPA / dropback39th+0.04
  • 47.5%59thStandard downs SR84th48.5%
  • 33.0%32ndPassing downs SR27th28.6%
  • 2.99104thLine yards64th3.09
  • 12.5%46thHavoc rate28th16.6%
  • 5.1211thPoints / opportunity68th4.06
  • 69%39thRed zone TD rate70th61%

NC State's offense rates higher in 8 of 11. Widest gap: points per opportunity (11th vs 68th).

OffenseSyracuse
SYR OFF

When Syracuse has the ball

DefenseNC State
NCSU DEF
  • +0.0764thEPA / play106th+0.13
  • 42.8%54thSuccess rate104th44.6%
  • 1.3065thExplosiveness83rd1.32
  • +0.0771stRush EPA / play122nd+0.17
  • +0.1067thPass EPA / dropback109th+0.18
  • 47.9%51stStandard downs SR99th49.3%
  • 30.0%79thPassing downs SR89th31.5%
  • 2.98106thLine yards109th3.32
  • 14.2%79thHavoc rate100th12.9%
  • 3.75102ndPoints / opportunity110th4.54
  • 50%124thRed zone TD rate118th71%

Syracuse's offense rates higher in 10 of 11. Widest gap: rush EPA (71st vs 122nd).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, season to date
MetricSYRSYRNCSUNCSUFBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral25.431.228.7
Plays per gamePlays per game78.367.065.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral50.2%51.2%48.2%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS−1.1%+3.7%−1.8%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral46.5%46.5%44.7%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations35%23%26%
Time of possessionTime of possession32:2231:0630:07
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field positionOwn 30.9Own 27.2Own 29.7
Neutral = WP 20–80%All tempo

Injury report

ACC AVAILABILITY · THU 8:00 PM · IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Syracuse

% TO PLAYIMPACT

NC State

% TO PLAYIMPACT