Hawai'i vs Northern Illinois

Hawai'i

1-61-6 · 0-4 Mountain West · ATS 3-4

3:30 PM ET

Sat, Oct 24 · MW+

Huskie Stadium · DeKalb

WIN PROB

58%

HAW

Northern Illinois

0-60-6 · 0-2 Mountain West · ATS 1-5

Spread: HAW −4; Open −6.5 · −110
Total: 48; Open 45.5 · o −110
Model line: HAW −3.5; Model total 54.3
Win probability: 58%
Projected score: 28.9 – 25.4; HAW – NIU
Projected plays: 133; FBS avg 131 · 28.9 s/play

Spread: HAW −4; open −6.5
Model: −3.5; HAW
Total: 48; model 54.3

Where the model sees the game

EPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED · GARBAGE TIME OUTEPA / PLAY VS FBS MEAN · OPP-ADJUSTED

Where the model sees the game: unit gaps and their model impact
Unit vs defense	Offense gainsOff	Defense allowsDef	Plays	Model impactImpact
Northern Illinois passvs Hawai'i pass Dvs HAW pass DBIGGEST EDGE	126th−0.15	109th+0.08	39	HAW +3.9
Hawai'i passvs Northern Illinois pass Dvs NIU pass D	106th−0.08	127th+0.14	45	HAW +3.9
Northern Illinois runvs Hawai'i run Dvs HAW run D	79th−0.02	113th+0.06	27	NIU +1.9
Hawai'i runvs Northern Illinois run Dvs NIU run D	127th−0.11	133rd+0.13	22	HAW +0.5
PaceHAW 25.8 s · NIU 27.1 s a snap · avg 131 plays133 plays vs 131 avg	—	—	133	O 0.5

BIGGEST EDGE · HAW +3.9

The Hawai'i pass defense vs Northern Illinois's passing game

Northern Illinois gains −0.04 EPA a play on the pass (126th); Hawai'i allows +0.20 (109th). About 39 such plays projected. OFFENSE / DEFENSE columns are EPA a play above the FBS mean; negative defense is stingier.

OFF = EPA/play gained above the FBS mean, DEF = allowed above it (negative is stingier). Impact = model points.

OffenseNorthern Illinois

NIU OFF

When Northern Illinois has the ball

DefenseHawai'i

HAW DEF

−0.05113thEPA / play118th+0.16
38.5%118thSuccess rate121st46.6%
1.2796thExplosiveness34th1.26
+0.0579thRush EPA / play113th+0.13
−0.04126thPass EPA / dropback109th+0.20
45.4%97thStandard downs SR124th51.4%
27.4%125thPassing downs SR84th31.4%
3.4333rdLine yards114th3.38
15.5%107thHavoc rate110th12.4%
2.96133rdPoints / opportunity79th4.15
50%119thRed zone TD rate110th70%

Northern Illinois's offense rates higher in 6 of 11. Widest gap: line yards (33rd vs 114th).

OffenseHawai'i

HAW OFF

When Hawai'i has the ball

DefenseNorthern Illinois

NIU DEF

−0.06118thEPA / play137th+0.25
38.9%109thSuccess rate136th49.2%
1.25105thExplosiveness82nd1.31
−0.04127thRush EPA / play133rd+0.19
+0.04106thPass EPA / dropback127th+0.25
46.6%76thStandard downs SR135th52.6%
26.8%131stPassing downs SR132nd35.8%
3.00100thLine yards134th3.65
17.3%126thHavoc rate137th8.0%
3.03132ndPoints / opportunity133rd5.35
33%136thRed zone TD rate124th76%

Hawai'i's offense rates higher in 9 of 11. Widest gap: standard-downs success rate (76th vs 135th).

Tempo & tendencies

SEASON TO DATE · NEUTRAL = WP 20–80%SEASON TO DATE

Tempo and tendencies, Hawai'i and Northern Illinois, season to date
Metric	HAWHAW	NIUNIU	FBS avgFBS
Seconds per play · neutralSeconds per play · neutral	25.8	27.1	28.9
Plays per gamePlays per game	70.0	62.7	65.7
Pass rate · neutralPass rate · neutral	64.7%	43.4%	47.9%
Pass rate over expected (PROE) · neutral, dropbacks vs xPassPass rate over expectedPROE · NEUTRAL · vs xPASS	+16.2%	−7.8%	−1.9%
Early-down pass rate · neutralEarly-down pass rate · neutral	61.2%	41.4%	44.6%
4th-down go rate · all situations4th-down go rate · all situations	22%	30%	27%
Time of possessionTime of possession	—	29:40	30:11
Avg starting field positionAvg starting field position	Own 26.5	Own 26.7	Own 29.8

Neutral = WP 20–80%

All tempo →

Hawai'i

MW REPORT · SAT 12:19 AMNET −0.6% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out for season
Joenel Figueroa · DBJoenel FigueroaDB · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Out for season
Luther McCoy · DLLuther McCoyDL · SRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Out for season
Robert Haynes IV · WRRobert Haynes IVWR · FRSeason ·Report trail: Out for season, Out for season, Out for season, Out for seasonT-2 → T-2
0%0.0
Out
Anthony Hickman · TEAnthony HickmanTE · SOReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%0.0
Out
Eric McFall · OLEric McFallOL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Out
Ha'aheo Dela Cruz · DLHa'aheo Dela CruzDL · SOReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Out
Khalil Walker · OLKhalil WalkerOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Questionable
Carson Brown · WRCarson BrownWR · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%−0.1
Questionable
Ethan Spencer · OLEthan SpencerOL · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%−0.1
Questionable
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina · DLLesterlaisene LagafuainaDL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%0.0
Questionable
Pofele Ashlock · WRPofele AshlockWR · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%0.0

Northern Illinois

MW REPORT · SAT 12:19 AMNET −3.8% TO PLAYIMPACT

Out
Cole Latimer · QBCole LatimerQB · FRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%0.0
Out
Jay'shon Thomas · EDGEJay'shon ThomasEDGE · JRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.3
Out
Joseph Nnamuchi · EDGEJoseph NnamuchiEDGE · JRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Out
Justin Faulkner · WRJustin FaulknerWR · FRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%0.0
Out
Jvon Hatcher · DTJvon HatcherDT · FRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Out
Luke Skartvedt · OLLuke SkartvedtOL · JRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.3
Out
Mathias Smith-Davis · EDGEMathias Smith-DavisEDGE · SOReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Out
Rickey Taylor Jr. · WRRickey Taylor Jr.WR · SOReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−1.6
Out
Terry Robinson · DTTerry RobinsonDT · FRReport trail: Out, Out, Out, OutT-2 → T-2
0%−0.1
Questionable
Avery Jones · DBAvery JonesDB · SRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%−0.1
Questionable
Bryshawn Brown · QBBryshawn BrownQB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%0.0
Questionable
Da'sean Howard · RBDa'sean HowardRB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%0.0
Questionable
JT King · EDGEJT KingEDGE · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%0.0
Questionable
Jack Murray · LBJack MurrayLB · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%−0.1
Questionable
Jacob Welch · OLJacob WelchOL · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%0.0
Questionable
Jordan Bellamy · DTJordan BellamyDT · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%0.0
Questionable
Taron Dickens · QBTaron DickensQB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%−0.6
Questionable
Telly Johnson Jr. · RBTelly Johnson Jr.RB · JRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%−0.4
Questionable
Tyler Chambers · OLTyler ChambersOL · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%−0.1
Questionable
Zaire McKinney · WRZaire McKinneyWR · FRReport trail: Questionable, Questionable, Questionable, QuestionableT-2 → T-2
79%−0.1

OFS OUT FOR SEASON · O OUT · D DOUBTFUL · Q QUESTIONABLE · GTD GAME-TIME DECISION · AV AVAILABLE

IMPACT = PTS VS REPLACEMENT × P(OUT)

Line movement

SUN 6:12PTotal 45.5 → 46.5
MON 3:00PTotal 46 → 47.5STEAM · 7 BOOKS
MON 3:14PTotal 46.5 → 47.5
WED 11:15PSpread −7.5 → −4 · 48% tickets HAWSpread −7.5 → −4 · 48% on HAWRLM

Steam = 4+ books in 5 min. RLM = line moves against the ticket majority.

Consensus market: open, now and model
Market · consensusMarket	Open	Now	Model
Spread HAWSTEAM · 4 BOOKSRLM	−6.5	−4	−3.5
TotalSTEAM · 7 BOOKS	45.5	48.0	54.3
Moneyline HAW	−212	−182	−140

Bet splits

DRAFTKINGS · VIA DK NETWORK

HAW −4 · 48% / 20%NIU +4 · 52% / 80%

Over · 60% / 17%Under · 40% / 83%

DraftKings bettors, as of 7:15 AM ET. Top bar tickets, bottom bar handle. A 43-pt gap on the under suggests larger, sharper bets.

Broadcast

MW+

CrewTBA

Conditions & crew

KICKOFF FORECAST

Partly Sunny: 70°
mph S: 10
Precip: 3%
Surface: Turf

RefereeCrew TBA

RestHAW 7d · NIU 7d

Injury report

Hawai'i

Northern Illinois

Line movement

Bet splits

Broadcast

Conditions & crew